Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?
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Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lai Ching-te ceases to be President of Taiwan for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lai Ching-te's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Lai Ching-te and the government of Taiwan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue activity
Read from the venue yesterdayTop holders
- Spanish-Priority66894634830747454916907378428251287456066687728430991644037204212951160547906
- JCK202466894634830747454916907378428251287456066687728430991644037204212951160547906
- Nadmi19433310307215001238395046325471448861459786056065350262097919931478169888007
- Caelum-Galyon19433310307215001238395046325471448861459786056065350262097919931478169888007
- v.l66894634830747454916907378428251287456066687728430991644037204212951160547906
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Discussion on Predxy
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6 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- anpan1man · 3 months ago
有点魔
- Andyge · 6 months ago
赖以生存
- Makise.Kurisu · 7 months ago
Taiwan is a son of the US, the US is the son of Israel. Taiwanese have no balls to criticize their grandpa
- Makise.Kurisu · 7 months ago
信賴台灣!賴皇萬歲萬萬歲!信賴神得永生!
- Garcioe · 9 months ago
For him, resigning as president was much easier than leaving with the American Institute in Taiwan.
- IraqiLobster · 9 months ago
depends if he criticizes israel or not
As of Sep 30, 01:43 AM UTC