PolymarketOpen

EU debt downgrade before 2027?

No85%

Yes16%

Price checked at Oct 1, 04:45 PM UTC

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24h volume—

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity$150.4

Spread14%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Venue activity

Read from the venue yesterday

Holders26

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments2

Top holders

luish2218596292846413598888468480279157025100362996982949466208605007576604865353
0xf203decc14a7d47af4d49734492ae040855f767318484542521366339796156498723064379589404436786055807068832301781268459605689
qwerfasdvzxcfdv18484542521366339796156498723064379589404436786055807068832301781268459605689
Joint-Partner2218596292846413598888468480279157025100362996982949466208605007576604865353
Gn0050087318484542521366339796156498723064379589404436786055807068832301781268459605689

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

BUY68%$4.130 days ago
SELL57%$6.8last month
SELL11%$1.82 months ago
SELL71%$6.33 months ago
BUY91%$10.93 months ago
BUY86%$14 months ago

Discussion on Predxy

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2 comments

From Polymarket's own thread

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.

Ilikedonuts · 9 months ago
Came here thinking omg France only 20%? To then see the any nation bet hahaha
Zebulom · 9 months ago
The EU isn't just one country; it’s backed by the combined power of the entire bloc's budget. Moody's just reaffirmed the Aaa Stable rating in October 2025 because they know the 'joint and several' support is legally ironclad.

As of Oct 1, 04:54 PM UTC