PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,500-$8,000 in December?

No76%

Yes24%

Price checked at Sep 30, 05:03 AM UTC

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24h volume—

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity$606.6

Spread10%

ResolvesDec 31, 2026in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."

Sourcehttps://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history

The same question elsewhere

2 venues carry it

View the combined question →

Comparable, not identical. The published resolution criteria and Yahoo Finance source are materially identical. Polymarket lists a December 31, 2026 21:00 UTC resolution time, while Opinion lists December 31, 2026 at 00:00 UTC; this is only a settlement-time difference, not a different question.

Polymarketthis market
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,500-$8,000 in December?
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
48 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 27, 09:56 AM UTC
OpinionOpen →
What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026 — 7,500-8,000
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
read Sep 30, 05:15 AM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,000-$6,500 in December?	Polymarket	95% No	—	—	—	Open
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December?	Polymarket	95% No	—	—	—	Open
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at >$8,000 in December?	Polymarket	62% No	—	—	—	Open
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,500-$7,000 in December?	Polymarket	91% No	—	—	—	Open
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,000-$7,500 in December?	Polymarket	78% No	—	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 3 days ago

Holders48

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Top holders

0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b129669619039969296586618948839774775571205133816349706550055931145009823341116679
ng600039088321585602927057502055965891543549721680408946039840513470893669801966110
ValueBet9619039969296586618948839774775571205133816349706550055931145009823341116679
Odd-Relish9619039969296586618948839774775571205133816349706550055931145009823341116679
Swift-Stuff39088321585602927057502055965891543549721680408946039840513470893669801966110

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Recent trades

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As of Sep 30, 05:31 AM UTC