Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | Polymarket | 100% Yes | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue 10 days agoBest bid 95% · best ask 97%
Top holders
- 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b12966102076439722791772222456496239043284316303357165861153712951847999481557129586
- flawfence67032868629198244197151679081284498411007663096019552211176387895758573646847
- suntori67032868629198244197151679081284498411007663096019552211176387895758573646847
- seal767032868629198244197151679081284498411007663096019552211176387895758573646847
- doublepepperoni67032868629198244197151679081284498411007663096019552211176387895758573646847
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
- BUY5%$9.610 days ago
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- SELL1%$7.110 days ago
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Discussion on Predxy
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97 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- Glum-Yew · 10 days ago
У Справедливой России уже 5,22% голосов. Посчитано больше 98%. Уже чисто математически невозможно чтобы она получила меньше 5%. У единой России 139 -140 мест по партийными списки и 208-209 мест по одномандатным округам. В итоге 347-349 мест. Пари закончено
- forinnerpsandr1x11222 · 10 days ago
sorry. mistake? I meant *And it's not about 354 or 355 seats.*
- forinnerpsandr1x11222 · 10 days ago
Literally EVERY newspaper? If that's true, it just proves how incompetent the people who chose journalism as a career are. And it's not about 354 or 345 seats. United Russia will get either 345 (or 344-346 doesn't matter so much) seats or 355. +-10 seats. It depends on whether one of the parties clears the 5% threshold. But by all means, keep reading those worthless rags instead of switching your brain on.
- mandraca · 10 days ago
Every newspaper is writing 355 seats to Putin, the only media which is talking about 354 is Polymarket
- VJR-24 · 10 days ago
lets goo 356
- Kutoba · 10 days ago
Reports 😂 this is Russian election, does not work like that. U shall check Just Russia’s lead account in X - he twitted in English that they are in. Why? Cuz he called Putin and asked for 0.5%, so Putin said ok, you are my old friend and now r dying so will keep your party alive. Some media published transcripts of this call
- forinnerpsandr1x11222 · 10 days ago
Пургу он нёс. Флудил во всех темах. Никакой внятной и стройной позиции у него не было и фундаментального анализа. Я пытался с ним общаться и выведать логику действий, её не было. Я заподозрил неладное, когда он встал в позу против меня, а потом продал её дешевле чем купил)))). Я подумал, в совокупности с его расплывчатыми комментариями, что мужик просто торговать пытается. Но нет. Оказался лудоманом. Проиграл все ставки, очень закономерный итог. У участников рынка, кто тут ставил не было информации. Я не инсайдер, и вообще не живу в России, например, но забрал большую часть рынка про регионы. Было страшно)) Но к счастью такие люди как богдан обеспечили мне приятные выходные. Дай бог им здоровья и всех благ в жизни.
- Raskell · 10 days ago
Would you mind sharing the reports/source?
- Untidy-Examination · 10 days ago
it's fcking possible
- VJR-24 · 10 days ago
ya 355 sure
- Untidy-Examination · 10 days ago
new reports indicate that a just russia has not reached 5%; it currently stands at 4.93%
- VJR-24 · 10 days ago
So the arithmetic is internally consistent: 355 is not just possible, it's very close to the mathematically expected outcome once SR's votes get redistributed. The reason it lands at the high end of what I estimated earlier is that essentially all of United Russia's leads in single-mandate districts held up through final counting, which is typical in Russian elections.
- CIOH · 10 days ago
бро. я читал твои комменты, ты подошел к выборам с очень неплохим фундаментальным анализом, но что ты не учёл, это то что вероятности как ты оцениваешь событие они субъективные для тебя, в выборах рф не бывает ни 50 на 50, ни 90 на 10, а всегда 100 на 0 для тех кто владеет информацией. поэтому ставка на новых людей была объективно плохой. надеюсь у тебя все норм и ты отыграешся в 2030
- YourAnimeGirl · 10 days ago
Don't worry United Russia will do anything for it to 355
- u2j4324 · 10 days ago
@bogdanc1 Ты еще живой?
- bogdanc1 · 10 days ago
это был потенциальный подсчет на фоне 95% обработанных протоколов. итоговые результаты будут не ранее 25 сентября
- bobrenokli · 10 days ago
In all Russian media, the figure 355 is only confirmed from early in the morning. Why does everyone put it at 347_354?
- Valid-Profit · 10 days ago
if it's 347. then the vote is such a joke
- bobrenokli · 10 days ago
356)
- Alfisy94 · 10 days ago
now 355
As of Oct 1, 10:47 PM UTC