US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Russia between January 6 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between U.S. and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue activity
Read from the venue 8 days agoBest bid 95% · best ask 97%
Top holders
- clxx7257011479626409922035368873631229141341263144294525166015954883117981789975
- drfgsaer74580890713477889155778397033413604695248820561928419929239929602538131402272
- coali1074580890713477889155778397033413604695248820561928419929239929602538131402272
- Alexx452574580890713477889155778397033413604695248820561928419929239929602538131402272
- sdiff12374580890713477889155778397033413604695248820561928419929239929602538131402272
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
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Discussion on Predxy
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18 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- sdwegtws · 4 months ago
There is higher chance for Putin and Trump clash on bed than this.
- drfeyhgreretg · 4 months ago
There is higher chance for Putin and Trump clash on bed than this.
- vasidjey · 4 months ago
no, impossible. no one needs it
- RealTima · 6 months ago
This one is the easiest 10% of your life!
- -0- · 8 months ago
in or lmfao
- Crowded-Longitude · 9 months ago
In what world would that happen?!?!
- Thodore · 9 months ago
Russia’s conventional forces are too depleted from the Ukraine stalemate to take on a U.S. carrier strike group head-on. Instead of a 'clash' by a specific date, expect 'hybrid escalation
- crypto-basenji · 9 months ago
Underpriced af Russia just sent a submarine to escort a sanctioned oil tanker off coast of Venezuela. [link removed]
- StockStrike1 · 10 months ago
tracking the right wallets saves you from overthinking these markets
- StockStrike1 · 10 months ago
insider activity been picking up quietly on this one, just putting it out there
- DFK · 10 months ago
Even for a Jesus comeback or aliens engineering the pyramids, there are generous souls willing to buy yes. But not on Trump and Putin clashing apparently...
- Nadmi · last year
There is higher chance for Putin and Trump clash on bed than this.
- samyyice · last year
bros... nothing ever happens rmember
- stubbornWizard · last year
indirect conflicts count as well, eh? Such as if another country has issues with US or Russia and they come to help … not unlikely this year imo
- context1 · last year
americans still dont understand russians.
- GenaTheBondKilIer · last year
Don't tell us what we're going to feel, we're trying to solve a problem.
- context1 · last year
7c price seems fair IMO
- Termxy · last year
what the hell is this
As of Sep 29, 09:31 PM UTC