PolymarketOpen

Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

No99%

Yes1%

Price checked at Oct 1, 08:21 PM UTC

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24h volume—

7d volume—

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Liquidity$17.8K

Spread0%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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As of Oct 1, 08:22 PM UTC