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PolymarketOpen

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

No96%
Yes4%

Price checked at

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24h volume$3.9
7d volume$143.3
30d volume$3.3K
Liquidity$27.7K
Spread0%
ResolvesDec 31, 2026in 3 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Venue activity

Holders525
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments25

Best bid 96% · best ask 96%

Top holders

  • final-divination35782709243786983035694178955131584324960374432781357142873120580614410145650
  • MEPP16507531654323613440839711226389584097745237130431039493320761537250304112351
  • AngryRhino16507531654323613440839711226389584097745237130431039493320761537250304112351
  • ded-ind-emp-seer35782709243786983035694178955131584324960374432781357142873120580614410145650
  • New-Anarchy35782709243786983035694178955131584324960374432781357142873120580614410145650

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

  • BUY96%$6.57 days ago
  • SELL95%$138 days ago
  • SELL4%$1.38 days ago
  • BUY96%$39.68 days ago
  • SELL95%$6.98 days ago
  • SELL95%$378 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

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25 comments

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.
  • Tough-Turnstile · 6 months ago

    Javid Shah

  • xlefgerx · 7 months ago

    That's someone with Trump Derangement Syndrome or TDS. The symptoms include delusions about polymarket orderbooks (that we can all see, by the way) being deep enough to even equal 0.00001% of Trumps net worth. As I type this there are 105,000 yes shares available and 100,000 no shares. 100k isn't even close to 1 billion. Being a liberal turns your brain to mush. Now lets all point and laugh at the dunce. lol

  • alpaje · 7 months ago

    why are you saying that

  • Sneazy5789 · 7 months ago

    comment blocked?

  • Sneazy5789 · 7 months ago

    Free money on Yes

  • slut4trading · 7 months ago

    Baron: Dad you know the drill. Make ppl believe you don't support RP so we can buy the yes on polymarket for dirt cheap and 8x our money.

  • slut4trading · 7 months ago

    Baron: Dad you know the drill. Make ppl believe you don't support RP so we can buy the yes on polymarket for dirt cheap then 8x our money.

  • slut4trading · 7 months ago

    Baron: Dad, you know the drill. Make it seem like there's no chance you will support Reza Pahlavi so we can buy "yes" on polymarket for dirt cheap and 8x our investment

  • GTJ · 7 months ago

    have you seen the prank call lol

  • Hermit47 · 7 months ago

    i compromised

  • HolyDiver · 7 months ago

    1. There might be a ceasefire deal 2. There might be a power vacuum or a long war/civil war, with an unstable government in Iran 3. Why would they even choose Reza Pahlavi?

  • Chims · 7 months ago

    look venezuela

  • FumCace123 · 7 months ago

    your crazy to not buy this... you have a whole year

  • Prince-of-Persia · 7 months ago

    Whatever happened there

  • Absolute.Degenerate · 8 months ago

    nobody is here to debate this shit, my guy.

  • Absolute.Degenerate · 8 months ago

    yeah so ? who cares.

  • Angelowski · 8 months ago

    eating grilled cheese from the radiator

  • Dragonash · 9 months ago

    20 years in the can

  • MEPP · 9 months ago

    I doubt it [link removed]

  • atnkan · 9 months ago

    Make Iran Great Again

As of Sep 29, 11:18 PM UTC