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Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?

No97%

Yes3%

Price checked at Sep 30, 12:00 AM UTC

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24h volume—

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity$84K

Spread0%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Venue activity

Read from the venue 2 days ago

Holders659

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments31

Best bid 97% · best ask 97%

Top holders

occasionalAwareness17095902971709157441219887002231819699119343581253499592038634568134421624411
Rufr92674041769676787946853574644277638811231469622795349256540717061493540204868
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b0417095902971709157441219887002231819699119343581253499592038634568134421624411
keribit17095902971709157441219887002231819699119343581253499592038634568134421624411
marketsbetts92674041769676787946853574644277638811231469622795349256540717061493540204868

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Recent trades

SELL97%$969.33 days ago
SELL2%$1.13 days ago
BUY98%$1233 days ago
SELL2%$0.68 days ago
SELL3%$0.28 days ago
SELL2%$2.48 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

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31 comments

From Polymarket's own thread

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Criminal-Wifi · 6 months ago
Just to let everyone buying no know, that Denmark flew out blood and orderd their soldier to have their guns loaded. Also reports say that congress/senate would have taken trumps power with republican help if he invaded greenland. A few reasones why Trump backed off. Now do you really believe his going to invade anything ever.
TheGoldenShotg4nSK · 8 months ago
Send me a tip to support a good cause (my gambling addiction)
00000000AAAAAAAA · 8 months ago
soon?!
CryptoAgent1 · 8 months ago
How many of his promises did he keep?
ruslanbes · 8 months ago
That's exactly what you say when you're already decided to use force. Of course you need to convince your enemy that you're not going to use it.
TheKinginYellow · 8 months ago
its over yes bettors, please exit so smart money can compound
StudyPrediction · 8 months ago
If you will use force, better let them not know that
Rough-Hurry · 8 months ago
He won't use force, free cash.
poliknomi · 8 months ago
JUST NOW: Trump promised not to use force
oars344 · 8 months ago
Trump says US won’t use force to acquire Greenland on newsnation
oars344 · 8 months ago
Trump says US won’t use force to acquire Greenland
Azerfhhgee112 · 8 months ago
North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) aircraft will soon arrive at Pituffik Space Base, Greenland. Along with aircraft operating from bases in the continental United States and Canada, they will support various long-planned NORAD activities, building on the enduring
xlefgerx · 8 months ago
Was that your entire comedy routine?
xlefgerx · 8 months ago
You think Trump even needs to threaten military. He is a deal makes and knows how to exert maximum pressure. Everyone who says he is an idiot couldnt do anything even close to running the world liek he does. WINNING BIGLY
lmilano · 9 months ago
We don't invade countries anymore, we call it special military operation
RIPTS · 9 months ago
He already has rights to establish bases - so no need to launch an offensive… read the full rules guys
noname777 · 9 months ago
it says "any portion of the land territory" so if they take a small place for a base counts as yes?
Talophex · 9 months ago
A short one preferably
KenanEvren · 9 months ago
Which are more costly than they are worth to extract, its a fucking arctic island in the middle of nowhere with no infrastructure
IraqiLobster · 9 months ago
ask Bibi's permission first

As of Sep 30, 12:19 AM UTC