Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
Price checked at
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Venue activity
Read from the venue 6 days agoBest bid 6% · best ask 8%
Top holders
- Threadbare-Signal27590482027597936032656851942296857212081813390908159168147454396674204768125
- Real-Advertisement3846533532930661180291298558314827648786405412231092530124351128414971688843
- LinaBell27590482027597936032656851942296857212081813390908159168147454396674204768125
- Listerineman27590482027597936032656851942296857212081813390908159168147454396674204768125
- Charlotteyt27590482027597936032656851942296857212081813390908159168147454396674204768125
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
- SELL7%$1.16 days ago
- SELL93%$9.96 days ago
- SELL6%$1.27 days ago
- SELL6%$1.28 days ago
- SELL6%$0.19 days ago
- SELL93%$2.49 days ago
Discussion on Predxy
What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.Sign in to join the discussion.
Nobody has said anything here yet.
14 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- DrOetker · 28 days ago
Get this to 97–98. There is NO CHANCE Trump puts BOOTS ON THE GROUND and lets AMERICANS DIE for some FOURTH-WORLD ISLAND after the IRAN WAR DISASTER - in an ELECTION YEAR! Thank you for your attention to this matter!
- Milin-dc · 3 months ago
no, a no ser de que traten de controlar algún territorio por un tiempo
- One-step-closer · 3 months ago
Tal vez ocurra algo en Bolivia o Cuba, pero no estoy seguro de si una operación especial se cataloga como invasión.
- opp22 · 7 months ago
2 months old but as of now not vey compelling
- 64MGX75VLQ · 7 months ago
of course it is
- Dynamit3 · 7 months ago
i just want to point out, brazil is not a Latin American country
- DontTrustMe · 7 months ago
This market is just a proxy for a US military intervention in Cuba or people have something else in mind? Venezuela has already been "dealt with" and I think a ground operation in Mexico is completely unrealistic.
- RealMrBeast · 8 months ago
Same whales, same playbook ArmageddonRewardsBilly appears as a dominant holder across multiple political markets, continuously followed by the same wallets, including alliswell and CrazyB1-chX0X0. They enter late during disputes or final review and trigger abrupt price flips from 0-1% to 99-100% without new factual evidence. This is coordination, not price discovery. The final price reflects who can coordinate the most capital at the end, not reality. Warning: Everyone, please stop betting if you see these whales participating until Polymarket has an official response.
- CoffeeLover · 9 months ago
My opinion: [link removed]
- Cadric · 9 months ago
All the countries in the Americas are America's backyard.
- djkewoidjwei · 9 months ago
there is a rich person putting yes on this that put 30k on no for invading venezuela before 2027 don’t fall for the pump
- djkewoidjwei · 9 months ago
obviously not, they’re not going to invade venezuela they’ll just silently run it, you’ll have to be an actual idiot to put yes on this
- youareaidiot · 9 months ago
lmao this is funny
- FaithOverLuck · 9 months ago
I can't wait to find a Latin American Country ! When will they be available to invade asking for a friend.
As of Sep 30, 12:22 PM UTC