PolymarketOpen

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

No95%
Yes6%

Price checked at

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24h volume—
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity$21.6K
Spread1%
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Venue activity

Holders277
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments14

Best bid 6% · best ask 8%

Top holders

  • Threadbare-Signal27590482027597936032656851942296857212081813390908159168147454396674204768125
  • Real-Advertisement3846533532930661180291298558314827648786405412231092530124351128414971688843
  • LinaBell27590482027597936032656851942296857212081813390908159168147454396674204768125
  • Listerineman27590482027597936032656851942296857212081813390908159168147454396674204768125
  • Charlotteyt27590482027597936032656851942296857212081813390908159168147454396674204768125

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

  • SELL7%$1.16 days ago
  • SELL93%$9.96 days ago
  • SELL6%$1.27 days ago
  • SELL6%$1.28 days ago
  • SELL6%$0.19 days ago
  • SELL93%$2.49 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

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14 comments

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.
  • DrOetker · 28 days ago

    Get this to 97–98. There is NO CHANCE Trump puts BOOTS ON THE GROUND and lets AMERICANS DIE for some FOURTH-WORLD ISLAND after the IRAN WAR DISASTER - in an ELECTION YEAR! Thank you for your attention to this matter!

  • Milin-dc · 3 months ago

    no, a no ser de que traten de controlar algún territorio por un tiempo

  • One-step-closer · 3 months ago

    Tal vez ocurra algo en Bolivia o Cuba, pero no estoy seguro de si una operación especial se cataloga como invasión.

  • opp22 · 7 months ago

    2 months old but as of now not vey compelling

  • 64MGX75VLQ · 7 months ago

    of course it is

  • Dynamit3 · 7 months ago

    i just want to point out, brazil is not a Latin American country

  • DontTrustMe · 7 months ago

    This market is just a proxy for a US military intervention in Cuba or people have something else in mind? Venezuela has already been "dealt with" and I think a ground operation in Mexico is completely unrealistic.

  • RealMrBeast · 8 months ago

    Same whales, same playbook ArmageddonRewardsBilly appears as a dominant holder across multiple political markets, continuously followed by the same wallets, including alliswell and CrazyB1-chX0X0. They enter late during disputes or final review and trigger abrupt price flips from 0-1% to 99-100% without new factual evidence. This is coordination, not price discovery. The final price reflects who can coordinate the most capital at the end, not reality. Warning: Everyone, please stop betting if you see these whales participating until Polymarket has an official response.

  • CoffeeLover · 9 months ago

    My opinion: [link removed]

  • Cadric · 9 months ago

    All the countries in the Americas are America's backyard.

  • djkewoidjwei · 9 months ago

    there is a rich person putting yes on this that put 30k on no for invading venezuela before 2027 don’t fall for the pump

  • djkewoidjwei · 9 months ago

    obviously not, they’re not going to invade venezuela they’ll just silently run it, you’ll have to be an actual idiot to put yes on this

  • youareaidiot · 9 months ago

    lmao this is funny

  • FaithOverLuck · 9 months ago

    I can't wait to find a Latin American Country ! When will they be available to invade asking for a friend.

As of Sep 30, 12:22 PM UTC