PolymarketOpen

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?

No97%

Yes3%

Price checked at Sep 30, 05:03 AM UTC

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24h volume$20

7d volume$585.6

30d volume$2.2K

Liquidity$59.7K

Spread1%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

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As of Sep 30, 05:20 AM UTC