US strike on Mexico by December 31?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Venue activity
Read from the venue 2 days agoTop holders
- Jan7774920174600328060381478178332126683115937537315909025772685332706706025236975
- thoodr4920174600328060381478178332126683115937537315909025772685332706706025236975
- Kevindoto4920174600328060381478178332126683115937537315909025772685332706706025236975
- anoin123112288566808772191752176657553224517134449016925515982914334631049531197841047
- Canaldi4920174600328060381478178332126683115937537315909025772685332706706025236975
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Discussion on Predxy
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148 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- .dgalvyn · 23 days ago
polyitem lowkey my favorite drop now
- Unsightly-Multimedia-Wriggler · 2 months ago
Ok...go win
- ARDBR0 · 4 months ago
Yes
- FerociousProgress · 4 months ago
Soon
- butterbrot · 4 months ago
should as long as its on mexican soil
- ebrachai · 5 months ago
Does striking cartels count?
- tony90125 · 6 months ago
when will this market resolve
- Run4ik · 6 months ago
I haven`t given my money
- anonymous · 6 months ago
Thank you for playing
- tony90125 · 6 months ago
someone to resole this
- arrieta · 6 months ago
Blah, blah, blah. We keep waiting.
- Skinny-Tabletop · 7 months ago
This will for sure happen this year. Trump made it clear.
- taroquere · 7 months ago
theres no way this is happening hahhaha
- Kickstand8 · 7 months ago
[link removed]
- Kickstand8 · 7 months ago
President Trump in Florida: "The epicenter of cartel violence is Mexico. The Mexican cartels are fueling and orchestrating much of the bloodshed and chaos in this hemisphere, and the United States government will do whatever is necessary to defend our national security."
- guybelownotsmart · 7 months ago
We will send missiles right into their living room. - Trump on the cartels just now
- Fluffy-Toast · 7 months ago
Unlikely
- anonymous · 7 months ago
lol keep buying your 1 cts
- MGGA.FAN · 7 months ago
mexico and cuba is next until this month
- guybelownotsmart · 7 months ago
Ww3 Side quests: squash/strike all the bad ppl in South America before they get thru the border that means Mexico is the last stop
As of Sep 29, 10:17 PM UTC