PolymarketOpen

US strike on Mexico by December 31?

No92%
Yes9%

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24h volume$3.4
7d volume$15.6K
30d volume$18.8K
Liquidity$21.6K
Spread1%
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Venue activity

Holders505
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments148

Top holders

  • Jan7774920174600328060381478178332126683115937537315909025772685332706706025236975
  • thoodr4920174600328060381478178332126683115937537315909025772685332706706025236975
  • Kevindoto4920174600328060381478178332126683115937537315909025772685332706706025236975
  • anoin123112288566808772191752176657553224517134449016925515982914334631049531197841047
  • Canaldi4920174600328060381478178332126683115937537315909025772685332706706025236975

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

  • SELL91%$70.83 days ago
  • BUY92%$923 days ago
  • BUY92%$174 days ago
  • SELL8%$2.55 days ago
  • SELL8%$2.35 days ago
  • SELL8%$85 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

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148 comments

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.
  • .dgalvyn · 23 days ago

    polyitem lowkey my favorite drop now

  • Unsightly-Multimedia-Wriggler · 2 months ago

    Ok...go win

  • ARDBR0 · 4 months ago

    Yes

  • FerociousProgress · 4 months ago

    Soon

  • butterbrot · 4 months ago

    should as long as its on mexican soil

  • ebrachai · 5 months ago

    Does striking cartels count?

  • tony90125 · 6 months ago

    when will this market resolve

  • Run4ik · 6 months ago

    I haven`t given my money

  • anonymous · 6 months ago

    Thank you for playing

  • tony90125 · 6 months ago

    someone to resole this

  • arrieta · 6 months ago

    Blah, blah, blah. We keep waiting.

  • Skinny-Tabletop · 7 months ago

    This will for sure happen this year. Trump made it clear.

  • taroquere · 7 months ago

    theres no way this is happening hahhaha

  • Kickstand8 · 7 months ago

    [link removed]

  • Kickstand8 · 7 months ago

    President Trump in Florida: "The epicenter of cartel violence is Mexico. The Mexican cartels are fueling and orchestrating much of the bloodshed and chaos in this hemisphere, and the United States government will do whatever is necessary to defend our national security."

  • guybelownotsmart · 7 months ago

    We will send missiles right into their living room. - Trump on the cartels just now

  • Fluffy-Toast · 7 months ago

    Unlikely

  • anonymous · 7 months ago

    lol keep buying your 1 cts

  • MGGA.FAN · 7 months ago

    mexico and cuba is next until this month

  • guybelownotsmart · 7 months ago

    Ww3 Side quests: squash/strike all the bad ppl in South America before they get thru the border that means Mexico is the last stop

As of Sep 29, 10:17 PM UTC