Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?
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Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Xi Jinping and/or Peng Liyuan announce their intention to divorce between the date of market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by the specified date of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market. The resolution source will be statements from Xi Jinping and/or Peng Liyuan, and their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.
Venue activity
Read from the venue 2 days agoBest bid 1% · best ask 1%
Top holders
- Weak-Gloom80855842970979697877023076563707344435572708704001759472778516525898011065528
- Leon889926834898413946211280078691788024959477410583063483754989242104940163302230215
- AMAM1326834898413946211280078691788024959477410583063483754989242104940163302230215
- KonImperator26834898413946211280078691788024959477410583063483754989242104940163302230215
- rocky4202226834898413946211280078691788024959477410583063483754989242104940163302230215
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
- SELL99%$100.22 days ago
- BUY99%$25 days ago
- SELL99%$55 days ago
- BUY99%$56 days ago
- BUY1%$1.96 days ago
- BUY99%$57 days ago
Discussion on Predxy
What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.Sign in to join the discussion.
Nobody has said anything here yet.
18 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- WHATURTLE · 3 months ago
How would you buy US bond by USDT?
- Studious-Boatyard · 5 months ago
这么弱鸡的赌盘😵💫
- Quirky-Lottery · 5 months ago
whats wrong with this?
- DontTrustMe · 6 months ago
Has there even been a rumour about that lol?
- YangYuxiang · 7 months ago
好荒谬的市场
- Ycyfufu · 7 months ago
一点都不值得
- Wordsmith · 7 months ago
worth a shot
- deherminator · 8 months ago
lol you're right I thought it was 2026, fair cop
- Dankwizart420 · 8 months ago
you have a bet out to march 2027 bro, not much to gain there
- deherminator · 8 months ago
Just a heads up: buying NO at ~98.6% means tying up your money for about a year to make roughly 1% if you’re right. You can earn several times that with risk-free options like Treasuries. Fine as a belief bet, but not a great way to grow money.
- deherminator · 8 months ago
Profit if you win: 1.4%. Takes 11 months to resolve. Inflation rate over that time is 6%. That's a net loss of 4.6% even if you win. Terrible hold for no holders. You can make much more with less risk on bonds.
- deherminator · 8 months ago
if you buy a US 1-year bond, you receive 4.8% at the end of the year, if you buy this market at 'NO', you earn at max 2.3%, if you invest in the stock market, returns of 10%+ are entirely normal, in short; everyone holding NO is losing money and they should sell. I agree Xi will not divorce, but you'll still lose money on this market in purchasing power
- deherminator · 8 months ago
for example, a US bond, which is entirely risk-free dollar wise, will earn you 4.8% over the year.
- deherminator · 8 months ago
this market is a bad bet, you lose money 7% to inflation and gain 1% (if you win)
- echo64 · 9 months ago
is-the-publisher-has-the-best-sense-of-humor-in-the-world would be better
- ManBOOOO · 9 months ago
?
- wsmitpwtind · 9 months ago
will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027 is better
- DonaldPatrick · 9 months ago
no
As of Sep 29, 09:06 PM UTC