Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Venue activity
Read from the venue 2 days agoBest bid 85% · best ask 91%
Top holders
- johnnyA24253954592444508770316971646035389318727679510133371245861695452805892494045
- Flamboyant-Warming24253954592444508770316971646035389318727679510133371245861695452805892494045
- Gennedy99651361099608953982756497253689593882335378715790744006963375820984581896327
- DominuxLux99651361099608953982756497253689593882335378715790744006963375820984581896327
- Herald-PS99651361099608953982756497253689593882335378715790744006963375820984581896327
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
- SELL93%$462 days ago
- SELL94%$9.42 days ago
- SELL5%$0.52 days ago
- SELL5%$12 days ago
- SELL4%$0.52 days ago
- SELL4%$1.72 days ago
Discussion on Predxy
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13 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- johnnyA · 5 days ago
No, rules say "conterminous United States"
- emeraldhands · 5 days ago
If get Hawaii Cat 4 it will be yes, right?
- Ebonyshade · 5 months ago
- Bugblatter · 5 months ago
Yes, plus el niño suppresses Atlantic hurricane formation and this year's is likely to be strongest since 1877. Yes is overvalued.
- marco62 · 6 months ago
Hope No
- Payna · 7 months ago
Helene in 2024 proved that 'major' status is now a baseline risk
- moistcookie · 9 months ago
why do negative pnls have the most to say
- Relaccsed · 9 months ago
In the last 20 years, there have only been 5 category 4 hurricanes.. That’d put the odds for this year around 25% - YES. For the last 80 years, the long term average is actually only 22%!
- Relaccsed · 9 months ago
Seems pretty overvalued.
- Relaccsed · 9 months ago
Only cat 4.
- i2dt · 9 months ago
They actually just added a cat 5 market, so this looks more confident this is only cat 4
- NeoVanguard · 9 months ago
According to rules, it is only 4. But don't be surprised if scammers here manipulate it to include 5 too.
- PortnoyAndHodge · 9 months ago
So only 4, not 4 and above?
As of Oct 2, 03:12 PM UTC