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Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

No92%
Yes8%

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24h volume$127
7d volume$3.4K
30d volume$6.7K
Liquidity$794.8
Spread4%
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.

Venue activity

Holders249
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments13

Best bid 85% · best ask 91%

Top holders

  • johnnyA24253954592444508770316971646035389318727679510133371245861695452805892494045
  • Flamboyant-Warming24253954592444508770316971646035389318727679510133371245861695452805892494045
  • Gennedy99651361099608953982756497253689593882335378715790744006963375820984581896327
  • DominuxLux99651361099608953982756497253689593882335378715790744006963375820984581896327
  • Herald-PS99651361099608953982756497253689593882335378715790744006963375820984581896327

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

  • SELL93%$462 days ago
  • SELL94%$9.42 days ago
  • SELL5%$0.52 days ago
  • SELL5%$12 days ago
  • SELL4%$0.52 days ago
  • SELL4%$1.72 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

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13 comments

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.
  • johnnyA · 5 days ago

    No, rules say "conterminous United States"

  • emeraldhands · 5 days ago

    If get Hawaii Cat 4 it will be yes, right?

  • Ebonyshade · 5 months ago

  • Bugblatter · 5 months ago

    Yes, plus el niño suppresses Atlantic hurricane formation and this year's is likely to be strongest since 1877. Yes is overvalued.

  • marco62 · 6 months ago

    Hope No

  • Payna · 7 months ago

    Helene in 2024 proved that 'major' status is now a baseline risk

  • moistcookie · 9 months ago

    why do negative pnls have the most to say

  • Relaccsed · 9 months ago

    In the last 20 years, there have only been 5 category 4 hurricanes.. That’d put the odds for this year around 25% - YES. For the last 80 years, the long term average is actually only 22%!

  • Relaccsed · 9 months ago

    Seems pretty overvalued.

  • Relaccsed · 9 months ago

    Only cat 4.

  • i2dt · 9 months ago

    They actually just added a cat 5 market, so this looks more confident this is only cat 4

  • NeoVanguard · 9 months ago

    According to rules, it is only 4. But don't be surprised if scammers here manipulate it to include 5 too.

  • PortnoyAndHodge · 9 months ago

    So only 4, not 4 and above?

As of Oct 2, 03:12 PM UTC