Will Trump's approval rating hit 47% in 2026?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 44% in 2026? | Polymarket | 94% No | Open |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 48% in 2026? | Polymarket | 95% No | Open |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 46% in 2026? | Polymarket | 92% No | Open |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 45% in 2026? | Polymarket | 94% No | Open |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 50% in 2026? | Polymarket | 95% No | Open |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 49% in 2026? | Polymarket | 96% No | Open |
Venue activity
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As of Sep 30, 06:28 PM UTC