PolymarketOpen

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

No97%
Yes3%

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24h volume$31
7d volume$31
30d volume$10.9K
Liquidity$12.1K
Spread1%
ResolvesFeb 1, 2027in 4 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Venue activity

Holders316
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments6

Top holders

  • 0x79a14b2a3eddd65296f6a85158d7eaf1491734b529637922150133247837494999268850861972506938929073189065972803949119432654860
  • DEGENKHAN48034741162414911677683690294521484296674889000564444056948845787306275984919
  • 58998529637922150133247837494999268850861972506938929073189065972803949119432654860
  • PontiusPilate48034741162414911677683690294521484296674889000564444056948845787306275984919
  • DegenerateJanet48034741162414911677683690294521484296674889000564444056948845787306275984919

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

  • SELL97%$96.14 days ago
  • SELL97%$144.18 days ago
  • SELL97%$43.59 days ago
  • SELL3%$010 days ago
  • SELL3%$0.110 days ago
  • BUY4%$0.210 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

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6 comments

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.
  • yunocchi · 8 months ago

    There have only been 5 recorded earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher:

  • Tart-Grief · 8 months ago

    2% probability, 2 earthquakes like that per century, 21 had already two.

  • Penthyn · 9 months ago

    Statistically it's like 7-8%. 11% is off but not much.

  • Lord-Rothschild · 9 months ago

    11%??? Yall are crazy

  • Basilomo · 9 months ago

    12% * more than avg sp500

  • sbinnala · 9 months ago

    wait for a year for 10% return its boring

As of Sep 30, 12:24 AM UTC