9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
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Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Venue activity
Read from the venue 2 days agoTop holders
- 0x79a14b2a3eddd65296f6a85158d7eaf1491734b529637922150133247837494999268850861972506938929073189065972803949119432654860
- DEGENKHAN48034741162414911677683690294521484296674889000564444056948845787306275984919
- 58998529637922150133247837494999268850861972506938929073189065972803949119432654860
- PontiusPilate48034741162414911677683690294521484296674889000564444056948845787306275984919
- DegenerateJanet48034741162414911677683690294521484296674889000564444056948845787306275984919
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
- SELL97%$96.14 days ago
- SELL97%$144.18 days ago
- SELL97%$43.59 days ago
- SELL3%$010 days ago
- SELL3%$0.110 days ago
- BUY4%$0.210 days ago
Discussion on Predxy
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6 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- yunocchi · 8 months ago
There have only been 5 recorded earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher:
- Tart-Grief · 8 months ago
2% probability, 2 earthquakes like that per century, 21 had already two.
- Penthyn · 9 months ago
Statistically it's like 7-8%. 11% is off but not much.
- Lord-Rothschild · 9 months ago
11%??? Yall are crazy
- Basilomo · 9 months ago
12% * more than avg sp500
- sbinnala · 9 months ago
wait for a year for 10% return its boring
As of Sep 30, 12:24 AM UTC