PolymarketOpen

Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?

No97%

Yes3%

Price checked at Sep 30, 03:20 AM UTC

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24h volume—

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity$16.4K

Spread1%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Venue activity

Read from the venue 4 days ago

Holders200

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments14

Best bid 97% · best ask 98%

Top holders

Alegrandebig1938593961598490009811329809692210958658799670627103623544929317930910109620
lava-lava1938593961598490009811329809692210958658799670627103623544929317930910109620
George3d61938593961598490009811329809692210958658799670627103623544929317930910109620
Spotted-Chasuble4472886865032838397810424393210272060370009201422264476823029103002744099016
BafanaBafana1938593961598490009811329809692210958658799670627103623544929317930910109620

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

BUY98%$97.56 days ago
SELL97%$19 days ago
BUY98%$19 days ago
SELL97%$103.79 days ago
SELL98%$5.19 days ago
SELL98%$204.49 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

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14 comments

From Polymarket's own thread

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HopeDisLasts · 5 months ago
What if some countries are captured by Putin? Would it count like they have withdrawn?
Mlovag · 5 months ago
this is completely false. I'm living in Iceland and nobody talks about this :D
DEGENKHAN · 7 months ago
US MONGOLIANS UNDERSTAND
Poli.carpo · 7 months ago
Without taxes though
deherminator · 8 months ago
You realize that you're buying a market with less returns than US Treasuries with more risk right?
Str3sU · 8 months ago
You realize that a referendum is needed, which cannot be organized in a month or in a sufficiently short time, right? But even if the referendum passes, it will take 1/2 years until it is implemented? I forgot that you in America don't have anything like that, you just do everything TRUMP says.
archaic · 9 months ago
After the US takes over Greenland, Iceland is likely to explore the idea of joining as a US state too.
Sonmerfield · 9 months ago
Did anyone see the December polling? 25% of Poles now want to start the procedure to leave. That’s the highest since we joined in 2004! The farmers are furious about the Green Deal and the new migration pact is a total lightning rod.
rontro28 · 10 months ago
This is the biggest bond ever!
d00d13 · 10 months ago
why estimated end date is in june?
Diegochevarin · 10 months ago
magyar will beat him
HugeSilver · 10 months ago
No
Sardinianshepherd · 10 months ago
is not this the biggest bond ever?
FoolishHungarian · 10 months ago
Hungary is getting ready for. (Viktor Orban is a fckn asshole)

As of Sep 30, 03:33 AM UTC