Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pedro Sánchez ceases to be Prime Minister of Spain for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pedro Sánchez's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pedro Sánchez and the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue activity
Read from the venue 8 days agoBest bid 16% · best ask 18%
Top holders
- pkz48069029602522438566697221508835732014168815060862308159598480358509516768097
- Danielj38943156005562933924590395107769174031077435060879703425069135833415221550151
- sWilliam38943156005562933924590395107769174031077435060879703425069135833415221550151
- Olcan48069029602522438566697221508835732014168815060862308159598480358509516768097
- AbsoluteDestroyer38943156005562933924590395107769174031077435060879703425069135833415221550151
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
- SELL16%$0.28 days ago
- SELL13%$0.18 days ago
- SELL81%$87.98 days ago
- SELL82%$828 days ago
- SELL13%$0.18 days ago
- SELL82%$337.49 days ago
Discussion on Predxy
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69 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- PA4EVER · 17 days ago
grande pedrito
- SrFrancisco · 24 days ago
porque son todos yankees
- Ninjafx · last month
con lo facil que es no entiendo como hay tan poca liquidez
- RealHLM · 2 months ago
corrupto vete ya
- Gotico · 2 months ago
Somos un ex pais, me cago en tus muertos pedro sanchez
- PredCartman · 2 months ago
facil
- Lavitacontinua · 3 months ago
pedro Pedrito
- Greed. · 3 months ago
Add market for July 31st
- Lavitacontinua · 3 months ago
vamos a ver pero porque caería del poder nuestro AMADO LIDER SUPREMO Ohhh LIDER alabado seas todopoderoso
- SAT.utxo · 3 months ago
No seais haters: Pedro Sánchez os quiere... ;)
- Shabby-Project · 4 months ago
Has sido PSOEIZADO
- sergio12 · 4 months ago
WIN-WIN Situation
- Dleurogo · 4 months ago
hay rebajas
- United-Decoder · 4 months ago
Vais a ser PSOEIZADOS
- Yearly-Pet · 4 months ago
He is "Presidente del Gobierno" not "Presidente". The head of state is king Felipe
- McBet · 4 months ago
In english-speaking countries, Spain's "president" is the king (head of state) and Sánchez is the Prime Minister (head of the parliament). Spanish constitution mandates a PM to always be in charge. An acting PM is still a PM. There is never a power gap. Sanchez will be the PM until a new one is named. This can be done either via a moción de censura, cuestión de confianza, new elections, resignation (jajajajaja) or death. The constitution does not foresee any other case in which a PM ceases to be a PM.
- Pudimos · 4 months ago
He will remain president until someone else takes over, so the resolution would be No.
- gaianauta · 4 months ago
The resolution criteria are unclear. First, Pedro Sánchez is the president, not the prime minister. Secondly, if he calls for elections he automatically becomes 'acting president'. Does this qualify as being "out"?
- Unknown-Painting · 4 months ago
I disagree. Yes an announcement of resignation/removal can resolve the market to YES, but the removal itself still has to fall within the market's timeframe, otherwise there's no removal to announce. I argue that an election result where Sánchez loses is not such an announcement. Under Article 101 of the Spanish Constitution, he doesn't stop being PM after an election, he stays on as caretaker (en funciones) until a successor is invested, which takes time (article 101 says "The outgoing Government shall continue in power until the new Government takes office". Extra highlight on the "shall continue in power"). If he stays as PM "en funciones" until January 1, then he never ceased to be PM of Spain in 2026. If the market resolves incorrectly it will have to be disputed.
- Ill-Ultimatum · 4 months ago
That doesn't matter; the rules specify that what matters is the announcement, not the date on which the hypothetical termination takes effect.
As of Sep 29, 09:26 PM UTC