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Will Parti conservateur du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

No100%
Yes0%

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24h volume—
7d volume—
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Liquidity$37.4K
Spread0%
ResolvesOct 6, 2026in 6 days

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).

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Venue activity

Holders116
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
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Open interest—
Comments78

Best bid 100% · best ask —

Top holders

  • 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296613732049738035746529640504303214577735130561054640349301093559136295417490843
  • benoitgagnon9971792453187763546489058024733820523797667736093517388854235326974724797239676
  • BabyGroot1792453187763546489058024733820523797667736093517388854235326974724797239676
  • Original-Rust1792453187763546489058024733820523797667736093517388854235326974724797239676
  • Informal-Sector1792453187763546489058024733820523797667736093517388854235326974724797239676

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Discussion on Predxy

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78 comments

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  • Calimer0 · 2 days ago

    GG I'll never redeem my shares, I'm leaving them to my great-grandkids to remember an old party that doesn't exist anymore and only held power for 8 years.

  • Fitzg · 8 days ago

    You're right, as long as the others are divided.

  • GOGO- · 8 days ago

    The PQ doesn’t need gains.

  • Fitzg · 8 days ago

    Ok, new pallas is bad for CAQ/Frechette Still no new gain for PQ

  • Fitzg · 8 days ago

    I'm waiting for polls showing the PQ gaining ground. There hasn't been a single one since the start of the campaign. Also, there are way too many undecided voters at this stage.

  • maisond · 8 days ago

    bro for the love of god sell, caq is not winning

  • WhaleWatch-44630 · 9 days ago

    mrworldwide is up 2.97% on their $2,882.21 bet on PQ with outcome Yes. Current value: $2,967.95. When you see returns like that, you pay attention.

  • Fitzg · 10 days ago

    I changed my name, it should help me

  • Pointed-Advice · 10 days ago

    I mean proportionally to the percentage of votes they received.

  • Fitzg · 10 days ago

    I just realized you said: "boomers also tend to vote heavily for the Parti Québécois under normal circumstances" — when? 2012?

  • Fitzg · 10 days ago

  • Pointed-Advice · 10 days ago

    That would be the right time, when the next polls come out on Monday or Tuesday, this percentage will increase.

  • Fitzg · 10 days ago

    you should go buy PQ majority at 20c

  • Pointed-Advice · 10 days ago

    Boomers also tend to vote heavily for the Parti Québécois under normal circumstances, but many of them moved to the CAQ at the beginning of the campaign. Many of them will return to the PQ. As for the PLQ, if it gains a little at the CAQ expense, that would increase the chances of a majority for the Parti Québécois.

  • Fitzg · 10 days ago

    I believe you. So if Fréchette drops, federalists and boomers who don't want a referendum will vote PLQ? And with the PQ rising, which parties will the PQ have taken votes from?

  • Pointed-Advice · 10 days ago

    In the next Léger poll, the Parti Québécois will rise and the CAQ will fall. Christine Fréchette has had a disastrous week.

  • Fitzg · 10 days ago

    I still think anything can happen with our British parliamentary system, 5 parties, and the leading one at 28% (historically the lowest for a win)

  • Fitzg · 10 days ago

    let's go boomers!

  • Fitzg · 10 days ago

    I sold some, but not enough

  • Fitzg · 10 days ago

    I sold some

As of Sep 29, 11:26 PM UTC