PolymarketOpen

New COVID variant of concern before 2027?

No81%

Yes20%

Price checked at Sep 30, 04:11 AM UTC

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24h volume—

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity$385.8

Spread1%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.

Venue activity

Read from the venue 2 days ago

Holders109

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments3

Best bid 15% · best ask 17%

Top holders

Uncomfortable-Jail6504540929868662842912462242061866048776561093012060896778122690600675771790
BluntTruthGentleman42852720175063881484174302265260021575155645154215126431629232062310090262081
Michael52896504540929868662842912462242061866048776561093012060896778122690600675771790
varch016504540929868662842912462242061866048776561093012060896778122690600675771790
xiaxiaoqiang202642852720175063881484174302265260021575155645154215126431629232062310090262081

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

BUY82%$16.43 days ago
BUY17%$3.43 days ago
BUY17%$3.43 days ago
BUY17%$3.44 days ago
BUY16%$3.24 days ago
BUY81%$4.74 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

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3 comments

From Polymarket's own thread

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.

Stoniye · 4 months ago
Just read the rules, there is a link to the official definition
meddl · 5 months ago
You really need to specify "of concern" here
Madoge · 10 months ago
Thanks for the invitation, but please don't come!

As of Sep 30, 04:32 AM UTC