Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.6m & 4.8m square kilometers?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers? | Polymarket | 99% No | Open |
| Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.2m & 4.4m square kilometers? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.8m & 5m square kilometers? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.0m & 4.2m square kilometers? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.4m & 4.6m square kilometers? | Polymarket | 98% Yes | Open |
| Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be at least 5m square kilometers? | Polymarket | 99% No | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue 8 days agoBest bid 100% · best ask 100%
Top holders
- 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b12966108044899170097225210694825399120238022536508936860846989957850203775347889788
- Corny-Hyphenation108044899170097225210694825399120238022536508936860846989957850203775347889788
- qqqmmmccc83156357589992408901293982783019969776078410163429767712590914241969504679657
- 85sdf83156357589992408901293982783019969776078410163429767712590914241969504679657
- Helpful-Sole83156357589992408901293982783019969776078410163429767712590914241969504679657
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Recent trades
- BUY100%$133.69 days ago
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- SELL0%$010 days ago
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Discussion on Predxy
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6 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- hammerstak · 8 months ago
I'll take your free money, thank you!
- Blackcap-162 · 9 months ago
The so called "long term trend" has plateaued. I expect the ice to regain in the coming years.
- KennedyG · 10 months ago
Just as I thought
- KennedyG · 10 months ago
The long-term trend is completely stacked against the ice. We are definitely challenging the all-time record low set back in 2012.
- Boibino · 10 months ago
So whats your position
- Domimic · 10 months ago
We are definitely challenging the all-time record low set back in 2012. The long-term trend is just completely stacked against the ice.
As of Sep 30, 07:37 AM UTC