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Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?

No93%

Yes7%

Price checked at Oct 1, 07:14 AM UTC

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24h volume—

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity$2.3K

Spread6%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release. The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.

Venue activity

Read from the venue 3 days ago

Holders75

Held value—

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Comments14

Top holders

Moribundus20300882457883313494670553893238589373756384031975729972127918621286340739468
MasonsConqueredRome34629230706859515985632565837314577837403293213118477161236306835196402835327
JonasB34629230706859515985632565837314577837403293213118477161236306835196402835327
thursdays34629230706859515985632565837314577837403293213118477161236306835196402835327
daiphoenix20300882457883313494670553893238589373756384031975729972127918621286340739468

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Discussion on Predxy

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14 comments

From Polymarket's own thread

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enrico-vasaio · 6 months ago
When the sun rises in the west and sets in the east. When the seas go dry and mountains blow in the wind like leaves.
moth-man · 7 months ago
This market is a little misleading.. he could still announce it in 2026 but that has nothing to do with it's estimated publishing date.
wardholm · 8 months ago
Let's go George!!!!
masnjr · 8 months ago
Sadly buying No on this might be the most free money market in PM😭😭😭 we are never getting this book
eleazar · 8 months ago
A better question would be before GTA VII ...
SummerWind · 8 months ago
"The winds of winter" released before the GTA VI?
Moiro · 8 months ago
Valar Morghulis
iutwpfal · 9 months ago
Writing is hard
Clapham · 9 months ago
Please don't let this drama have a terrible ending, okay? Give me three dragons and I could conquer the world!
SummerWind · 9 months ago
The winter is coming
enrico-vasaio · 9 months ago
hopefully soon
Mansfield · 9 months ago
George mentioned yesterday that if he could just get the TV projects off his back, he could finish 'pretty soon.
FrontierPsychiatrist · 9 months ago
lol this is the least likely event on all of polymarket
Yeezuus · 9 months ago
obviously not

As of Oct 1, 07:35 AM UTC