Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2026?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? | Polymarket | 96% No | Open |
| Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026? | Polymarket | 97% No | Open |
| Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? | Polymarket | 84% No | Open |
| Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? | Polymarket | 92% No | Open |
Venue activity
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37 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- Capital-Endoderm · 5 days ago
I'll keep the Toilet Paper doomerism going. Friends from the US: Toilet Paper equals Diesel. If there are Diesel shortages >> Toilet Paper shortages.
- Capital-Endoderm · 2 months ago
YES is massively undervalued. In 2025, between June and December, the CPI grew by only 0.46% TOTAL, and only because oil/gas prices tanked. From now on, CPI YoY has a stairway to heaven. Hoard toilet paper before October.
- Zesty-Nucleotide · 2 months ago
perps: 00jbvof3
- RollerPennies · 3 months ago
lol
- MatthewHor · 3 months ago
How are these odds so low when the Strait of Hormuz is still closed and Cushing, OK is about to hit tank bottoms? What am I missing?
- hugoops · 3 months ago
are u still thinking the same?
- anonymous · 4 months ago
Its a good trade but always manage your risk
- GypSea1 · 4 months ago
If I wouldn't have a wife, I would spend all my money on 4,5 and 5% options, too good to be true...
- Capital-Endoderm · 4 months ago
Hot job data today. Sell crypto, buy toilet paper. Your butt will thank me in October when TP will be more valuable than gold in the US.
- Capital-Endoderm · 4 months ago
ICYMI: more AWFUL news. Import prices crushed (2x) the forecast, and bond yields are skyrocketing. Forget this bet, consider selling crypto/bitcoin and stocking up on toilet paper.
- GypSea1 · 5 months ago
Well, then let the inflation begin:D
- MKIsabella · 5 months ago
OECD says 4.2% average, which means you would have some months in 5.5% range at least. This report was done in April 2026, when Hormuz was only closed 3-4 weeks. [link removed]
- MKIsabella · 5 months ago
OECD says 4.2% average, which would suggest at least one month has to pop above 5%. [link removed]
- Capital-Endoderm · 5 months ago
The PPI read today was AWFUL. PPI anticipates CPI when inflation is driven by commodities (like oil) and supply chain issues.
- GypSea1 · 5 months ago
Do you guys think if the energy prices stay high for 2-3 more months, can it hit 6%?
- GypSea1 · 5 months ago
Still waiting
- NoPeeking · 5 months ago
thx man
- kirby26 · 5 months ago
kick rocks MKIsabella
- perfectnostalgia · 5 months ago
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports." Rule set seems clear to me. 3.5 Exactly is not enough, needs to be 3.6.
- NoPeeking · 6 months ago
Guys! a hypothetical question: if Apr CPI were 3.5%, it would not be counted as above 3.5%?
As of Sep 29, 11:21 PM UTC