Will the US strike 12 countries in 2026?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? | Polymarket | 64% Yes | Open |
| Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? | Polymarket | 69% No | Open |
| Will the US strike 14 countries in 2026? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will the US strike 13 countries in 2026? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will the US strike 15 or more countries in 2026? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026? | Polymarket | 98% No | Open |
| Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026? | Polymarket | 98% No | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue 6 days agoBest bid 99% · best ask 100%
Top holders
- 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296647497776136948682326357799773593842873451466179062458706785494589694839857270
- SaturnStormCube88085357366525645352998752922712518792477856130579630158266191046118537936813
- paddaa88085357366525645352998752922712518792477856130579630158266191046118537936813
- planktonXD88085357366525645352998752922712518792477856130579630158266191046118537936813
- nufonehudis6788085357366525645352998752922712518792477856130579630158266191046118537936813
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
- SELL0%$011 days ago
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- BUY100%$416 days ago
- BUY100%$16.917 days ago
Discussion on Predxy
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31 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- Thedevilwearsprada · 2 months ago
If Colombia gets a strrike will it be 9?
- Quick-Witted-Test · 2 months ago
1 more strike at Cuba and it will be 9
- 1walrus · 5 months ago
They just struck Nigeria yesterday
- johnnath1222 · 5 months ago
What you found brother?
- Relaccsed · 5 months ago
6-7
- 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 · 5 months ago
Rex help
- Rex416 · 5 months ago
Iran Iraq Syria Somalia Venezuela Yemen Ecuador
- chickendinner69 · 5 months ago
actually nvm, I should've done my research better!
- chickendinner69 · 5 months ago
why the fuck is this resolving?
- chickendinner69 · 5 months ago
This is basically a bet on whether the USA will bomb Nigeria or change from providing only ISR support to direct support in Mexico, Colombia, or Ecuador (which seems unlikely) or accidentally drop ordnance on some other country. The US has very little to gain from hitting Cuba (it will not cause regime change, and Maduro was a special case) or Lebanon (it's Israel's theatre, not the US's). I think this market deserves to be at 50%. Yemen, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Somalia, and Venezuela have already happened, so they're non-issues.
- Winifrad · 6 months ago
I expect we'll see double digits by summer if the 'Epic Fury' ripple effects continue in the Sahel
- Ralphi · 6 months ago
also siria to be confirmed, also equador have been bombed and shoud be added
- Ralphi · 6 months ago
lebanon to be confirmed
- nufonehudis67 · 6 months ago
5 countries resolved no, so at least 6 countries have been hit, apparently I'm not online enough but 5 are Somalia, Iraq, Iran, Venezuela, Syria and... at least one more. Maybe Yemen?
- Savage-Snow · 7 months ago
The US has hit 5 countries so far. High probability on Mexico and Lebanon. Low probability on the Philippines and Colombia. I don't think it can be more than 9 or 10 countries.
- johnnath1222 · 7 months ago
I agree with you. At first read, I found it unlikely that US would be striking cartel target in a friendly country. That kind of direct military action is mostly reserved for terrorist or ai. to weaken adversaries in the disguise of anti narcotic operations.
- nufonehudis67 · 7 months ago
it's debatable :) my understanding is while Ecuador did strikes, US are only confirmed to have provided intel and operational support; perhaps US did more but it was only implied and not confirmed. If only Ecuador did strikes, doesn't count. You need a source saying US did air/drone/bomb strikes. There are lots of nice sounding lines from articles out there, but I couldn't find a smoking gun. I would love it if Ecuador counted, it's very good for me, but I don't think the evidence is there, I may be wrong. [link removed] = a source saying Ecuador used fixed-wing aircraft etc...but only mention intel/support from US. Fox saying "US military conducts targeted strike" feels juicy, but I couldn't find anything out that says it was more than a metaphorical strike.
- johnnath1222 · 7 months ago
That's debatable. Major outlets like Foxnews have said US stikes. [link removed]
- nufonehudis67 · 7 months ago
Ecuador misleading
- dravey · 7 months ago
you're a cunt
As of Sep 29, 07:22 PM UTC