Another US debt downgrade before 2027?
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Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Venue activity
Read from the venue 7 days agoBest bid 6% · best ask 10%
Top holders
- GUINESS12366284977163262204624598450319968559820692964588074113638404834566884517814525
- peepeepooppoop66284977163262204624598450319968559820692964588074113638404834566884517814525
- ineedmassage6657607173945755203413576765317939991899502379919879432789601293635182048454
- perseo6657607173945755203413576765317939991899502379919879432789601293635182048454
- GTOrski16657607173945755203413576765317939991899502379919879432789601293635182048454
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
- SELL90%$4.97 days ago
- SELL90%$12.97 days ago
- SELL6%$0.17 days ago
- SELL90%$188 days ago
- SELL6%$0.112 days ago
- SELL4%$3.112 days ago
Discussion on Predxy
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As of Sep 30, 12:50 AM UTC