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U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?

No97%

Yes4%

Price checked at Sep 29, 06:35 PM UTC

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24h volume$209.7

7d volume$283.8

30d volume$367.5

Liquidity$16.4K

Spread1%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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As of Sep 29, 07:24 PM UTC