Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
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Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue activity
Read from the venue 5 days agoBest bid 10% · best ask 13%
Top holders
- idfinsider022877132880917401070666091393120461788915506343412486912966806707785309994048445
- Worse-Scenario59736848662097529610293978400620054879089948497116337912766009020050637830629
- Burolen59736848662097529610293978400620054879089948497116337912766009020050637830629
- Dependable-Scrambled59736848662097529610293978400620054879089948497116337912766009020050637830629
- Nigel36459736848662097529610293978400620054879089948497116337912766009020050637830629
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
- SELL8%$7.88 days ago
- BUY10%$0.59 days ago
- BUY14%$1.99 days ago
- SELL10%$1.410 days ago
- BUY85%$177.511 days ago
- SELL16%$4.212 days ago
Discussion on Predxy
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As of Sep 30, 04:46 AM UTC