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NATO article 5 before 2027?

No94%

Yes6%

Price checked at Sep 29, 11:56 PM UTC

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24h volume$439.5

7d volume$12.8K

30d volume$62K

Liquidity$23.1K

Spread2%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.

Venue activity

Read from the venue 4 days ago

Holders153

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Best bid 93% · best ask 94%

Top holders

whysoslow43163627642054688181815035851547282838254727740867654146202339736338923379962
gorovi2023566903018276614249600567472475788663508489795373839831574790501932782080
Vietnam72023566903018276614249600567472475788663508489795373839831574790501932782080
vsesoso43163627642054688181815035851547282838254727740867654146202339736338923379962
LlamaLoco000043163627642054688181815035851547282838254727740867654146202339736338923379962

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

BUY94%$15 days ago
BUY94%$119.45 days ago
BUY8%$49.25 days ago
BUY8%$615 days ago
BUY7%$7.26 days ago
SELL94%$26.26 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

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As of Sep 30, 12:06 AM UTC