PolymarketOpen

OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?

No96%
Yes4%

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24h volume$1.8K
7d volume$3K
30d volume$15.7K
Liquidity$4.5K
Spread2%
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange. OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD. Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange. If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed. If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.

Venue activity

Holders398
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments9

Top holders

  • 100x53455249154698091892597546188646780074388526414669356079477086663348609285332
  • Paul97397353455249154698091892597546188646780074388526414669356079477086663348609285332
  • 0xff7ca9cd180d33119e653e3eb50555a3e2ccb23353455249154698091892597546188646780074388526414669356079477086663348609285332
  • jpurd1739763921554641941061304829681183678894833246741338293177697266335996130248563
  • Contentious-Dinnerdate39763921554641941061304829681183678894833246741338293177697266335996130248563

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

  • SELL97%$58.34 days ago
  • SELL97%$22.35 days ago
  • BUY3%$25 days ago
  • SELL2%$1.66 days ago
  • SELL2%$0.17 days ago
  • SELL97%$1.17 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

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9 comments

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.
  • Rooglish · 20 days ago

    A hard no.

  • Forthright-Gallery · 4 months ago

    well well well

  • POOR · 8 months ago

    need a tip to start of betting

  • INTERPOL · 9 months ago

    claude told me to buy No

  • Rozi231 · 10 months ago

    1

  • tempnane · 11 months ago

    drop the "chat". Just GPT, it cleaner.

  • mango-lassi · 11 months ago

    a billion dollars isn't cool, you know what's cool? a trillion dollars

  • onekeyone · 11 months ago

    There are more than enough private investors that are willing to give money. There's no need to IPO any time soon

  • Mufasa33 · 11 months ago

    At current rates of inflation $1t would be nothing for OpenAI, lol

As of Sep 30, 03:35 AM UTC