Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
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Resolution rules
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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2 venues carry it- Polymarketthis market
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
875 holders · 28 comments · read Sep 25, 09:16 PM UTC
- PredictFunOpen →
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
read Sep 29, 12:52 PM UTC
Venue activity
Read from the venue 4 days agoBest bid 32% · best ask 33%
Top holders
- forcestrut138487155026041533062980821872238023790862908049855818921747904019478875496931
- drop12638487155026041533062980821872238023790862908049855818921747904019478875496931
- chungguskhan7330556727383706468662351173040823924339817877848787483691015397124505109410
- wan1237330556727383706468662351173040823924339817877848787483691015397124505109410
- truefish3138487155026041533062980821872238023790862908049855818921747904019478875496931
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Discussion on Predxy
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29 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- bernardbulletin · 12 days ago
Tax billionaires out of existence
- betpro3 · 29 days ago
This is not what this market is about though
- Geolibertarian · 2 months ago
This is underpriced. Never underestimate the stupidity of the average voter.
- Envious-Concern · 2 months ago
Interesting point, the voters will decide and I think we know which way they will lean!
- AliKhamenei · 3 months ago
difference is that the democratic party leaders like Gavin Newsome opposes the billionaire tax, but I doubt he will support the poison pill bill
- polymark · 3 months ago
Could this increase the odds for this market? If im reading the rules of the market correctly, it could resolve Yes because the measure passes during the election but the wealth tax could still not take effect if either of the poison pill initiatives pass. Meaning, those opposing it could direct resources into the making sure the other initiatives pass instead.
- polymark · 3 months ago
Seems as if those opposed to it believe there's a serious chance it could pass: "Two efforts that were crafted to sink the proposed billionaire tax — dubbed poison pills — also qualified for the Nov. 3 ballot, according to the California Secretary of State’s office. One would bar new state taxes on personal property, while the other prohibits any new taxes being exempted from existing state spending rules and to be regularly audited. If the billionaire tax proposal is approved by voters but either of the other proposals receives more votes, the tax measure would be voided."
- polymark · 3 months ago
Sure, but there's been plenty of measures & candidates that won that were not the most well funded. The 'poison pill' initiatives indicate, along with the revealed preferences of certain wealthy people (e.g. Sergey Brin moving out of the state), that there's a serious possibility the wealthy believe it could pass. Newsom & other establishment Dems opposing it does hurt it tho
- AliKhamenei · 3 months ago
support drops drastically for any ballot measure as the election gets closer. Billionaires are going to be dumping millions into ad campaigns
- AliKhamenei · 3 months ago
Can we have a 100% Wealth Tax for Gavin Newsome please?
- polymark · 4 months ago
Polling consistently has 50 to 60% support. Can anyone steelman the case for why they think it won't pass? I get the sense that, given ballot measures aren't compulsory to vote on, there's a much larger number of people who are passionately in favor of this vs the number that are against it. (From the Wikipedia page for Polling data)
- iutwpfal · 5 months ago
Yes but no but irrelevant
- kkss198x · 5 months ago
the fixed assets—factories and infrastructure—remain. As long as engineers and skilled labor stay, production can be restarted. While libertarian theory emphasizes non-aggression.
- mever · 5 months ago
If the rich all leave, will the poor still have job opportunities?
- Massive-Neon · 6 months ago
- thechainsmokers · 7 months ago
2 million dollar volume is not gonna cover a billion dollars buddy
- adonpoli · 8 months ago
another pump ?
- Eia · 8 months ago
Since poly is used as "polling" info in news media, trying to influence the polybet to influence the real world vote? Surprising its on the opposite side of the billionaires..
- Eia · 8 months ago
Whats up with these three new accounts hoarding all the yes?
- nick-turani · 9 months ago
this will violate both the california state constitution and the united states constitution: 14th amendment due process, retroactivity, right to travel, armstrong vs US, then 5th amendment takings, forced liquidation. this is free money, no chance this can proceed from both state and federal levels
As of Sep 29, 07:23 PM UTC