Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026? | Polymarket | 92% Yes | Open |
Venue activity
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7 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- hdtomo · 10 days ago
One must understand that Florida has been polled as much as states like Kansas or South Carolina - partly for good reason, because the expectation is that Florida will have gotten more red in the fundamentals on top of already being a red state. However, if we are to believe Florida has NOT undergone a massive demographic shift from 2024 to 2026, the fundamentals are very similar to Texas. Texas is now a +4 to +5 race for the Democrats, if we were only to grant that Nixon were on equal footing to Talarico and waive Ashley Moodey as a good candidate by default, the race would already be a tossup, which two of the three polls in the last month reflect. Those polls could've come right out of Texas, Ohio, Iowa for all we care. For that reason, I will be placing my big bet for the midterms here
- Magician5342 · 20 days ago
Far-left Nixon will be losing to Moody in a landslide
- anonymous · last month
Yes
- bernardbulletin · last month
source?
- phony.stark · 5 months ago
Ashley Moody is a classless bitch! Don't vote for this slut. She sucked off Marco and Rick
- hdtomo · 6 months ago
Per Public Policy Polling, if you remove Don't Knows, Florida is now only +2 Republican. Very interesting I think Florida is a long shot but it'll come as a surprise, the Republican pricing is more down to a lack of polls than confidence, like how Maine and Ohio were up till recently. South Carolina is worth watching too
- BoysenBerry · 7 months ago
Republicans are going to crush lol idk what people are thinking
As of Sep 29, 11:22 PM UTC