Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
The same question elsewhere
2 venues carry it- Polymarketthis market
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
950 holders · 122 comments · read Sep 22, 04:46 AM UTC
- PredictFunOpen →
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
read Sep 29, 11:52 PM UTC
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | Polymarket | 62% Yes | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue 8 days agoBest bid 38% · best ask 39%
Top holders
- 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b129669846414914422486942750462555692240718767368950832862364324602361738794436048
- chuckrhoades21265207456609426291246075480390336499088453711419597084147957999650569091884
- wan1239846414914422486942750462555692240718767368950832862364324602361738794436048
- Arbguy21265207456609426291246075480390336499088453711419597084147957999650569091884
- Fearless-Misnomer9846414914422486942750462555692240718767368950832862364324602361738794436048
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Discussion on Predxy
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128 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- GoodChanses · 2 days ago
The Republican establishment is refusing to support Paxton since he took their biyatch cornyn out. Paxton has an uphill battle ahead of him. Ironically the lack of support from the republican establishment may yet save him in an election where the Republican Party is pretty unpopular. We will see. Cornyn would be doing much worse. Everyone had had energy of him.
- randyandi · 4 days ago
and you are a rassist idiot
- Magician5342 · 5 days ago
Republicans should have nominated Cornyn.
- Carlosoiu · 6 days ago
- dPredictor · 7 days ago
ICE shot a man in the back, yoinked him out of the hospital, drove him a hundred miles, shackled, with a bullet next to his spine, then made him sleep in the floor, now he is paralyzed. Even if you are all for 'mass deportations' what they did is a crime against humanity, and will flip Texas blue for good.
- dPredictor · 7 days ago
make it 1K
- Handsome-Inevitable · 8 days ago
You have an all time loss of 462 dollars brah
- Zaratustra · 8 days ago
Ken loser
- insanelgreat · 8 days ago
Ty for the free money, leftist losers.
- kaijennings537 · 9 days ago
lets go, James
- AnEggplant · 11 days ago
Trashfalgar has fallen. James Talafreako will represent the good people of Cowfuck, Texas in the United States Senate.
- takeabreath · 12 days ago
It's a bit more complex than that, I think. If it were that obvious to dems in the past Texas would've been blue sooner. It's the right time to be Talarico, because the republican party is in a transition period that I think many working class republicans do not trust. Paxton's camp is laden with scandals, he is backed by someone who is also laden with scandals (Trump) and they have no plans to alleviate economic issues of working class households. It's a perfect storm for change. But precedent in Texas is still a major barrier. The first signal that TX turns blue in Nov will determine if a blue wave will happen or not, I think.
- Jubilant-Clavicle · 12 days ago
So you'll elect a deeply corrupt pdf file protector as long as they aren't overly sympathetic to trans people, who make up 0.000001% of Texas. Makes sense.
- Humble-Moai · 14 days ago
What does “moderate” even mean? He’s willing to say that there are only two sexes, and that transgender women should not be allowed to compete in women’s sports when doing so could create safety concerns for female athletes. If Talarico isn’t willing to clearly state those two positions, then at least I wouldn’t vote for him.
- HDTomo-229 · 14 days ago
Talarico is not broadly moderate. A large part is just native fluency in kitchen table economics, religion, and just being a plain good speaker. That's just a particularly good outreach method for Texas. His policies could be Mamdani or Manchin and he'd do similar
- HDTomo-229 · 14 days ago
Market decided to finally stop being boring and wrong Texas is arguably bluer than Ohio now
- Warm-Sail · 14 days ago
Lmfao 😂😆 GOP cheat factor.
- AnEggplant · 14 days ago
Ahem
- Humble-Moai · 15 days ago
It’s pretty remarkable that Paxton had been leading by around 50 points in Texas at one point, yet Talarico has managed to close the gap so dramatically. I believe there are plenty of rational, pragmatic voters in Texas who aren’t necessarily committed to either party. Perhaps the problem for Democrats in the past was that their candidates were simply too far to the left for many Texas voters. Talarico, by presenting a more moderate and pragmatic image, seems to be attracting a much broader audience than Democrats have in recent years.
- themightyslug · 29 days ago
You know what? Maybe it's better you stick to culture war arguments, because when it comes to actual policy, you don't know your ass from a hole in the ground.
As of Sep 30, 03:25 AM UTC