Will the Republicans win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026?
Price checked at
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
The same question elsewhere
2 venues carry it- Polymarketthis market
Will the Republicans win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
35 holders · 1 comments · read Sep 27, 07:41 PM UTC
- KalshiOpen →
New Mexico Senate winner?: Will Republicans win the Senate race in New Mexico? Larry E. Marker
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of New Mexico for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
read Sep 29, 08:24 PM UTC
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026? | Polymarket | 97% Yes | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue 2 days agoTop holders
- VorpalQuark34151693471054832326907352504678670863317940877946622594683256674473306466921
- ImJustKen47410821361368319377218522333433306313753572972827491807608363074924233552004
- 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296634151693471054832326907352504678670863317940877946622594683256674473306466921
- planktonXD47410821361368319377218522333433306313753572972827491807608363074924233552004
- elPolloLoco34151693471054832326907352504678670863317940877946622594683256674473306466921
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
- SELL3%$0.43 days ago
- BUY97%$54.828 days ago
- BUY4%$4.4last month
- BUY4%$0.2last month
- SELL95%$202 months ago
- SELL2%$0.22 months ago
Discussion on Predxy
What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.Sign in to join the discussion.
Nobody has said anything here yet.
1 comment
From Polymarket's own thread- VorpalQuark · 8 months ago
SANTA FE — If he rebuffs a primary challenge, U.S. Sen. Ben Ray Luján is set to avoid a Republican opponent in his bid for a second term, after a potential GOP opponent was disqualified Tuesday for failing to meet ballot requirements. The disqualification of Republican candidate Christopher Vanden Heuvel of Rio Rancho means that for the first time in modern state history the state's general election ballot for a U.S. Senate race will have only one major party candidate. In all, [Democrat] Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver ruled four candidates did not turn in enough qualified voter signatures to appear on the June primary election ballot.
As of Sep 29, 10:12 PM UTC