Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

No72%
Yes29%

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24h volume$22.9K
7d volume$114.9K
30d volume$231K
Liquidity$156.6K
Spread1%
Resolves—

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. Both use AP, Fox News, and NBC calls, falling back to official certification if needed; no material resolution difference is apparent. PredictFun includes a creation timestamp, while Polymarket includes a nominee-replacement clarification that is immaterial to this party-level market.
  • PredictFunOpen →

    Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

    This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification. Created At: 2026-03-02T12:00:49.294573259Z

    read Sep 29, 06:52 PM UTC

  • Polymarketthis market

    Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

    This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

    446 holders · 74 comments · read Sep 25, 08:20 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Polymarket73% YesOpen

Venue activity

Holders446
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments73

Best bid 28% · best ask 29%

Top holders

  • 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296671610581811588451243087930916572592402913705975252472987256607890992191263885
  • flawfence1046980875306043125128331871114794349002409233139736033870402475326170083426
  • cigarettes1046980875306043125128331871114794349002409233139736033870402475326170083426
  • SlavaUkraini71610581811588451243087930916572592402913705975252472987256607890992191263885
  • botbot1046980875306043125128331871114794349002409233139736033870402475326170083426

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Discussion on Predxy

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73 comments

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  • Rzzpkt · 4 days ago

    ur either with or agasint the pdf file.

  • Handsome-Inevitable · 5 days ago

    you people worship Epstein's best friend trump

  • Muman · 5 days ago

    The anti-genocide wing of the party. You're a genocide supporter.

  • JohnnyBlaze1 · 5 days ago

    Love that for you bro

  • JohnnyBlaze1 · 5 days ago

    Based on my positions, I understand why you’d assume I’m a Republican, but I also had plenty of limit orders on Democrats that simply never got filled — Talarico, for example. And regarding Sununu, if you think buying shares at 12¢ means I genuinely thinks he's going to win, you’re delusional. I bought them because they were cheap, not because I thought he is the favourite.

  • ClariseStarling007 · 6 days ago

    The Hamas-wing of the democratic party. JFC

  • drater · 6 days ago

    Advantage El Sayed, but not this much

  • Handsome-Inevitable · 7 days ago

    You don't love the country then get the f*&k out

  • Handsome-Inevitable · 7 days ago

    You voted for orange Epstein gtfo

  • Exotic-Towel-Stole · 7 days ago

    free money

  • Handsome-Inevitable · 7 days ago

    LMAO Did you sell yet?

  • ExtremeSwat · 7 days ago

    He's just Hassan's best friend, sharing the same ideals like '9/11 was good', 'hamas is great', so yeah. sure

  • KimchiCapital · 8 days ago

    If Osama wins this country is fucked

  • Handsome-Inevitable · 14 days ago

    Mike Dodgers didn't come to the debate. Sad.

  • Magician5342 · 14 days ago

    A republican supporter who think awful Sununu will win NH Senate😂😭

  • Handsome-Inevitable · 18 days ago

    Oh I'm not a loser, sorry.

  • JohnnyBlaze1 · 19 days ago

    Put your money where your mouth is lmao😂

  • Handsome-Inevitable · 21 days ago

    It's over for Mike 'lick my boots' rogers

  • PaulSidneyWard · 26 days ago

    Where did YOU get your medical degree from??

  • Xbtc · 28 days ago

    Okay , so what? We ain't voting for maga lil Bro

As of Sep 29, 10:14 PM UTC