Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | Polymarket | 71% Yes | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue 2 days agoBest bid 70% · best ask 71%
Top holders
- lomneivan37327444084035787269854507880662541101916131726641992937390933740081521292625
- Railcool75079868093228966915894372964099062660587490227046756021175661325867722540666
- 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296637327444084035787269854507880662541101916131726641992937390933740081521292625
- anoin12337327444084035787269854507880662541101916131726641992937390933740081521292625
- BigRabbit75079868093228966915894372964099062660587490227046756021175661325867722540666
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Discussion on Predxy
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8 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- dPredictor · 7 days ago
voter polls show Hamilton leading by 2%, not Marshall leading by 18%, this market is a GOP fairytale
- dPredictor · 11 days ago
have you watched the video?
- hdtomo · 11 days ago
Okay so Kansas MIGHT just go blue
- hdtomo · 12 days ago
Very interested for a Texas coded race. In wave years like this, star candidates like Talarico speed up underlying trends instead of causing them themselves. Given how quickly everyone suddenly realised this is all Democrat favoured this is, it probably makes Kansas way more likely. Sucks the polls suck here
- Magician5342 · 13 days ago
You forget Kansas is a Trump +16 deep red state. It might be a close one but Dem is not winning.
- dPredictor · 14 days ago
"The average cost of gasoline has been less under President Trump than it was under Joe Biden. You can look it up, you can fact-check me as well."
- dPredictor · 14 days ago
Roger Marshall was loudly booed, jeered, heckled and laughed out of the room during his first general election debate at the Kansas State Fair in Hutchinson on September 12, 2026. Look it up, said stuff like: "The average cost of gasoline has been less under President Trump than it was under Joe Biden. You can look it up, you can fact-check me as well." (Met with skepticism and boos from the audience)
- hdtomo · 15 days ago
What happened?
As of Sep 29, 07:22 PM UTC