Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?

Yes59%
No42%

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24h volume$13.8K
7d volume$60.1K
30d volume$197.4K
Liquidity$171.7K
Spread1%
Resolves—

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. The published resolution criteria are materially the same; Polymarket includes an additional nominee-replacement clarification. Both use AP, Fox News, and NBC calls, falling back to official certification if needed.
  • PredictFunOpen →

    Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?

    This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

    read Sep 29, 06:08 PM UTC

  • Polymarketthis market

    Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?

    This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

    420 holders · 9 comments · read Sep 27, 10:49 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Polymarket59% NoOpen

Venue activity

Holders420
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments10

Best bid 58% · best ask 59%

Top holders

  • anoin123107844449523890311740907586041395758413047559802389895859202256336422357556837
  • lomneivan107844449523890311740907586041395758413047559802389895859202256336422357556837
  • 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296645697952169290210733788647908439282215277461482653377209044144054693714912010
  • bernardbulletin45697952169290210733788647908439282215277461482653377209044144054693714912010
  • gateway-45697952169290210733788647908439282215277461482653377209044144054693714912010

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Discussion on Predxy

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10 comments

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  • stephansmith2004 · 7 days ago

    Legend

  • G.Hchen · 7 days ago

    Wow

  • MispricedPaladin · 7 days ago

    Do you have a crystal ball?

  • bernardbulletin · 14 days ago

    summer ends sept. 22 8:04 PM Eastern

  • hdtomo · 17 days ago

    Both politicians have polled above 50% at least once, which means the polls have been definitive for both sides at least once. For Turek a few times more than Hinson. That's more than any of the other swing states, which probably means the answer is in the national environment, not the polls.

  • JustTheFacts · 18 days ago

    Turek is leading in all polls.

  • MispricedPaladin · 25 days ago

    bro summer already passed

  • bernardbulletin · 3 months ago

    they already do

  • MispricedPaladin · 3 months ago

    Hinson and her dumb speeches about being a mom is going to haunt your dreams

  • bernardbulletin · 7 months ago

    50-50 this summer

As of Sep 29, 07:24 PM UTC