Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the "Democrat" or "Republican" options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven't called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? | Polymarket | 86% Yes | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue 8 days agoBest bid 15% · best ask 16%
Top holders
- 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296694997938472772845981621371346408480728260037625129184428077443070579239724265
- ImJustKen110568426700454908727813010666782278712329569099119457880819387703511785225289
- 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b83694997938472772845981621371346408480728260037625129184428077443070579239724265
- PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN94997938472772845981621371346408480728260037625129184428077443070579239724265
- lug110568426700454908727813010666782278712329569099119457880819387703511785225289
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
- SELL84%$0.710 days ago
- SELL15%$1.910 days ago
- BUY16%$2.310 days ago
- BUY16%$7.610 days ago
- SELL84%$81.511 days ago
- BUY16%$1.611 days ago
Discussion on Predxy
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25 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- AnEggplant · 2 months ago
RIP to the Tiffany holders who bought at 60
- hdtomo · 2 months ago
Wisconsin made a mistake, at least, from the perspective of being scared of a Republican
- bravonolan-393 · 2 months ago
The shift is stunning lol
- siick · 2 months ago
bro thought this was nyc
- siick · 2 months ago
brutal
- siick · 2 months ago
white libs love that shit
- Cool-Land · 2 months ago
I really don't hold out much faith either way on this one.
- nickle-rich · 2 months ago
The lunatic left on stage.
- andromed4 · 2 months ago
Because the retarded candidate is going to win the primary
- kimjongun123 · 2 months ago
The brothas ain't votin for the crazy bitch.
- kimjongun123 · 2 months ago
The lady who hates her own son because he's half white is definitely gonna win an 80% white state. Only concern now is that maybe Crowley pulls out a primary win. Hopefully she doesn't take her loss out on him, or start cutting...
- BigRabbit · 2 months ago
Dumocrats want to cancel Thanksgiving
- bernardbulletin · 2 months ago
why is Democrat going down :(
- Magician5342 · 2 months ago
Watch her news interview about cancelling Thanksgiving. It is really a disaster. She will be destroyed in the general election debate.
- Magician5342 · 2 months ago
+6 Dem is based on that Democratic nominee is not far-left Hong. She is a very controversial candidate whose values are not consistent with the Americans, e.g. defund the police and cancel Thanksgiving.
- hdtomo · 2 months ago
Polls suggest Wisconsin is +6 Dem in a generic governor poll. The last 3 polls with Hong as a candidate gives her 45%, the last 3 polls Tiffany has had gives her 42.3%~, if we give Tiffany the benefit of the doubt and only include polls with Hong, that only rises to around 43.5%~ When factoring that the national environment has no reason to improve for Republicans and that after the primaries end, internal attacks against Hong will cease, I see no reason to suggest she could lose.
- kimjongun123 · 2 months ago
I hope Hong wins, but only if she flushes her meds and we get to see a governor have a psychotic break. Is it the mood stabilizers preventing her from giving an effective answer to questions like: Do you still think we should defund and abolish the police, and should we abolish Thanksgiving?
- kimjongun123 · 2 months ago
I think my comment has aged reasonably well. The only hope here for Dems is that she's got something in her past that can be dug up after the primary, sufficient to allow the party to Platner her. She's obviously enough of a headcase that something may come up, but she isn't a white man, so I wouldn't bank on it working even if something did.
- Magician5342 · 2 months ago
Most of the polls suggest that if the Democratic nominee is not Hong, it would be a lean / likely D race. With Hong winning the primary, it is now a Tossup / lean R one.
- hdtomo · 2 months ago
Polymarket is willing to go all the way to evens just because it's a DSA Democrat? Give over, and price Texas Senate correctly while you're at it
As of Sep 29, 09:32 PM UTC