Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the "Democrat" or "Republican" options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven't called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? | Polymarket | 81% Yes | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue 2 days agoBest bid 16% · best ask 17%
Top holders
- 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296672484470323457781490418074887818414956328925259630173408815876344351328006429
- WongKimArk48232987449750988261789196083999659380058157021032932634331257492238853387252
- Railcool48232987449750988261789196083999659380058157021032932634331257492238853387252
- NotHarrisonHohman72484470323457781490418074887818414956328925259630173408815876344351328006429
- joepublic8048232987449750988261789196083999659380058157021032932634331257492238853387252
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
- SELL83%$8.92 days ago
- BUY84%$2.32 days ago
- BUY84%$6.42 days ago
- SELL83%$26.32 days ago
- BUY85%$502 days ago
- SELL84%$56.82 days ago
Discussion on Predxy
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7 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- G.Hchen · 7 days ago
Texas Safe D
- AnEggplant · 12 days ago
When does this market realize Hinajosa is STILL underpriced?
- Magician5342 · 12 days ago
Abbott is not as controversial as Paxton. This race might be close but not enough for Hinojosa to win
- HDTomo-229 · 14 days ago
At least one +10 poll*
- HDTomo-229 · 14 days ago
Things probably start to get a lot better for Hinojosa contingent on Talarico getting 10+, even if she doesn't get any explicit polling wins
- AnEggplant · 20 days ago
This pricing is now officially retarded
- sygic-sys-man · 2 months ago
Has anybody been following the political detention of @governorgauthier on IG or seen gov(dot)ariselabs(dot)cloud ? did you all notice the polls stopped recently. It seems texas has become a police state run by the current ruling order and they may be trying to control the narrative and proactively meddle in the elections. Can this be updated to include all politicians?
As of Sep 29, 10:26 PM UTC