Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?

No96%
Yes4%

Price checked at

Trade
Set your country to see where you can trade.Set your country
Opens the venue in a new tab, through Predxy.
24h volume$660
7d volume$22.3K
30d volume$116.7K
Liquidity$80.8K
Spread1%
ResolvesNov 4, 2026in 10 days

Probability history

Drag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom

Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 2Sep 15Sep 28Oct 11Oct 25Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question
Comparable, not identical. Polymarket publishes AP, Fox News, and NBC/official-certification criteria; Pascal provides no separate criteria and references the Polymarket market. Their one-minute resolution-time difference is immaterial.
  • New York Governor Winner: Republicans

    The venue publishes no resolution criteria for this market.

    read Oct 25, 01:06 AM UTC

  • Polymarketthis market

    Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?

    This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

    154 holders · 2 comments · read Oct 23, 11:28 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?Polymarket96% YesOpen

Venue activity

Holders154
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments2

Best bid 3% · best ask 5%

Top holders

  • 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296632946988346851809083717853909672502303533938428804197173672614672441945179683
  • cigarettes108106288970534575307495623455701128869187166289634633189375113923142364674394
  • AngryRhino32946988346851809083717853909672502303533938428804197173672614672441945179683
  • Seutervoinen32946988346851809083717853909672502303533938428804197173672614672441945179683
  • sourdough420108106288970534575307495623455701128869187166289634633189375113923142364674394

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

  • BUY4%$0yesterday
  • SELL96%$342 days ago
  • SELL4%$02 days ago
  • BUY97%$32 days ago
  • BUY96%$202 days ago
  • BUY96%$52 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

Sign in to join the discussion.

Nobody has said anything here yet.

2 comments

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.
  • JadenCruz · 12 months ago

    Kathy Hochul's projected 2026 gubernatorial win in New York is amplifying Democratic strongholds while GOP strategists scramble to counter her resilient urban voter base.

  • igormgtow · 12 months ago

    I think its likely the democrats win, but I would have to analyze this before placing a bet.

As of Oct 25, 01:39 AM UTC