Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? | Polymarket | 79% Yes | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue 8 days agoBest bid 21% · best ask 22%
Top holders
- 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296683106526449876874573813297184176954494008138834292248374570211745966785088569
- HongKongMenace45666577334498374671436529469006420565255125221309505855441517627481607414492
- Ruddy-Warming-Snowplow45666577334498374671436529469006420565255125221309505855441517627481607414492
- HotDogs83106526449876874573813297184176954494008138834292248374570211745966785088569
- RadioCCOD45666577334498374671436529469006420565255125221309505855441517627481607414492
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
- BUY78%$125.68 days ago
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- SELL76%$192.38 days ago
- SELL77%$39.38 days ago
- SELL23%$3.78 days ago
- SELL78%$43.78 days ago
Discussion on Predxy
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11 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- enekestomi · 12 days ago
Always love a good deal 🙏
- Magician5342 · 18 days ago
Wow A dollar is on sale for 80 cents!
- AnEggplant · 23 days ago
Traders seem to be sleeping on the facts that a sizable number of Republican voters in northwest Florida, many of whom turned out for both Trump and Desantis over the last 4 years, won’t turn out for a Black man and that many others of them won’t turn out because their morale is in the basement.
- Jaded-Relief · last month
This is one of the best trades on the market! I live in St. Pete Florida and I can tell you the GOP's dominance is over.
- Proper-Prefix · 2 months ago
no thanks, both parties are corrupt.
- Tileartfl · 2 months ago
No One wants Data Centers. I will vote for Jolly before I vote Red Whacka Flocka Donalds
- physicalsun9344 · 3 months ago
Copy trading for a month already doubled my money
- Gregarious-Basil · 3 months ago
Because the alleged front-runner has a serious criminal past.
- Mikaelo · 4 months ago
I don't understand how there's any doubt republicans will win. Fl is a red state by safe margins nowadays
- phony.stark · 5 months ago
My state fucking sucks so it will probably vote in this swamp creature Donalds. Real shortage of intelligence down here, along with rainfall
- hdtomo · 6 months ago
Florida polled +1 to a DEMOCRAT??? Granted, Casey DeSantis isn't the frontrunner, but the fact that it is even possible? Florida is still purple
As of Sep 29, 09:25 PM UTC