Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
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Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
read Sep 29, 07:24 PM UTC
- Polymarketthis market
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
319 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 27, 10:38 PM UTC
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? | Polymarket | 99% No | Open |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? | Polymarket | 96% Yes | Open |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day? | Polymarket | 99% No | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue 2 days agoTop holders
- 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296648451126471681390564675828610810240762308720916091458567360242927144088567337
- Reflecting-Bicycle6122912536415539457721068960901205060237919057489564846781206253065694717085
- Overjoyed-Population6122912536415539457721068960901205060237919057489564846781206253065694717085
- nryy6122912536415539457721068960901205060237919057489564846781206253065694717085
- BabyGroot6122912536415539457721068960901205060237919057489564846781206253065694717085
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As of Sep 29, 10:19 PM UTC