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Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

No96%
Yes4%

Price checked at

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24h volume$12.6K
7d volume$72.8K
30d volume$200.3K
Liquidity$95.4K
Spread2%
ResolvesOct 5, 2026in 5 days

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Venue activity

Holders511
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments32

Best bid 6% · best ask 7%

Top holders

  • unknwnfnd29464249359795764732112771440808805030560641430581197204785405866716242261762
  • Unwelcome-Fig45822599979868501396582860994506290061594012396386219725082308923565779306211
  • ScottyNooo45822599979868501396582860994506290061594012396386219725082308923565779306211
  • nedsta45822599979868501396582860994506290061594012396386219725082308923565779306211
  • Seutervoinen45822599979868501396582860994506290061594012396386219725082308923565779306211

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

  • BUY93%$355.23 days ago
  • BUY94%$12.23 days ago
  • BUY7%$1003 days ago
  • SELL94%$13 days ago
  • BUY94%$13 days ago
  • BUY94%$93.73 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

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32 comments

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.
  • International-Dolman-Placebo · 13 days ago

    com certeza nao deve ser maior que a do lulla!

  • Unfortunate-Pantology · 4 months ago

    Não sei se o mais estúpido é essa frase ou quem leva ela a sério

  • Unfortunate-Pantology · 4 months ago

    É uma folha em branco? Acho que você quis dizer "tem uma ficha corrida"

  • gakov · 6 months ago

    O marqueteiro do ratinho com certeza é alguém que sabe muito de política brasileira.

  • gakov · 6 months ago

    Bota o título da matéria completo, faltou: "Disse o marqueteiro do Ratinho", uau. Se você está tão certo disso, entra all-in então.

  • Long-Media · 6 months ago

    Flavio Bolsonaro e uma folha em branco e pode ganhar no primeiro turno: Estadao 11/04

  • Long-Media · 6 months ago

    Estadao: Flavio Bolsonaro eh uma folha em branco e pode ganhar no primeiro turno

  • gakov · 6 months ago

    Pesquisa mais recente dando 35% pro Flávio e 33% pro Lula, mas segundo a sua "probabilidade", a chance deveria ser 75-25 de não ter segundo turno, confia...

  • Long-Media · 6 months ago

    You dont know nothing about the researchs and probability, it shoul be 75-25

  • gakov · 6 months ago

    Yeah, this price doesn't make any sense...

  • TakeItEasyMyBrotherCharlie · 6 months ago

    I'd give less than 5% chance of this happening... I'm putting some money on it

  • gakov · 6 months ago

    Qual a pegadinha?

  • Funny-Skullduggery · 8 months ago

    Only FHC won in the first round. The country is divided. Almost 7% white/null votes, Lula doesn't even have 40% of intentions as of january.

  • NIVALDOMIR2025 · 8 months ago

    Lula Vai ganhar so no segundo turno

  • NIVALDOMIR2025 · 8 months ago

    Eu acredito que Lula ganha so no segundo turno!!!!

  • Ugabugaletsgo · 9 months ago

    better than cdi

  • drinbet · 11 months ago

    wrong dates on end...on top should be 2026

  • felipecast · 11 months ago

    Kkkkkkkkkkkkkk

  • Milton-piscadas · 11 months ago

    i agree coconut, not the best bet for us rn

  • Mealy-Conflict · 11 months ago

    se depender do alexandre de moraes nao vai ter segundo tuno.

As of Sep 30, 01:27 PM UTC