Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
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Resolution rules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
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Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
read Sep 29, 04:24 PM UTC
- Polymarketthis market
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
5.7K holders · 20.2K comments · read Sep 27, 01:44 AM UTC
- MyriadOpen →
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
### **Market Dates:** - **Market Period:** From the publication date until June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. - **Market Close:** June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. - **Resolution Time:** Upon official confirmation of the winning candidate. ### **Resolution Criteria:** - This market will resolve to the candidate who is officially declared the winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. - Resolves to "**Yes**" for the candidate who is officially declared the winner. - Resolves to "**No**" for all other listed candidates. - This market includes any potential second-round runoff. - If a listed candidate withdraws, is disqualified, or otherwise does not appear on the final ballot before voting begins, that candidate's outcome will resolve to "No", unless they are nevertheless officially declared the winner before resolution occurs. ### **Resolution Details:** - If the result of this election is not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No" for all outcomes. ### **Resolution Sources** - This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. - In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official results published by Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE). ### **Cancellation Conditions:** - Any circumstance that makes the outcome impossible to determine using the specified criteria. If the market is cancelled, participants can claim their stakes at the then-current market value of their shares, which could result in a profit or a loss depending on the price of those shares at cancellation.
read Sep 29, 09:05 PM UTC
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Read from the venue 3 days agoBest bid 43% · best ask 44%
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Discussion on Predxy
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11,215 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- Mortified-Headline · 22 hours ago
Tudo 22
- Issesterfesson · 22 hours ago
O Renan está de olho nos eleitores do flavio e ele vai fazer de tudo p capta-los. Renan mente muito, mente sem consequência, pois não tem nada a perder, apenas a ganhar. Jamais iria a um debate desse. Flávio tem a justifixativa de não ir. Enfim
- Petty-Impala · 22 hours ago
Nessa tu mandou bem kkkk
- WanKapef · 22 hours ago
Discordo, será muito melhor visto se ele for e Lula ser taxado de frouxo, fujão e envergonhado de seu governo, que não quis ir dar satisfação ao seus eleitores, seja como for, se Flavio for, Lula desidrata.
- WhaleWatch-67638 · 22 hours ago
ScottyNooo spent $61,799.30 on Flávio Bolsonaro outcome Yes. Profit so far: $24,822.58. That position is printing money right now.
- Issesterfesson · 22 hours ago
Não é questão de prova de fogo. É cálculo político, todos os debatentes só tiram voto de Flávio, e o único que tira voto do Lula é o Flávio.. Flávio tem muitos eleitores “fracos” que estão indo nele p evitar Lula, ou seja, eleitores que podem desidrata-lo. Se Flávio for será uma carnificina por esse eleitorado, enfraquecendo Flávio para o 2 turno e até podendo garantir Lula no 1.
- Issesterfesson · 22 hours ago
Pelo que entendi, zema desistiu
- halostryx · 23 hours ago
ja ja chega o farbus e aquele LGFZ maluco
- FarbusBoIsonaro22 · 23 hours ago
Flávio precisa passar pela prova de fogo e mostrar que está apto para qualquer desafio. Se correr também, vai pegar mal pra kct. O Lula EXIGIU (isso foi amplamente noticiado) que o formato do debate na Globo fosse apenas com candidatos que estão dentro da cota eleitoral e agora dá pra trás... Não está claro ainda, pelo menos pra mim, que a produção do debate vai buscar um substituto ou deixar o pulpito do Loola vazio. Há informações desencontradas a respeito disso até nas notícias da Globo.
- Sharp-Cherry · 23 hours ago
Cury e caiado são inofensivos. Vai ser mais um palanque para o flavio. Espero q o zema va no lugar do lule.
- Issesterfesson · 23 hours ago
Flávio, não vá ao debate da Globo. Juntando todos os participantes não dá 5%, e os danos que um Renan da vida pode trazer com suas mentiras podem ser irreversíveis
- WanKapef · 23 hours ago
É por isso que falei que são a versão PCO da direita. E mais nanicos ainda.
- Lula.desistiu · 23 hours ago
Datafolha é uma vergonha. Vai ser um massacre da direita esse ano
- DatafolhaErrou · 23 hours ago
Renan santos morreu: <1%
- MillylLcombe · 23 hours ago
melhor competir e perder do que nao competir.
- WhaleWatch-72756 · 24 hours ago
ScottyNooo spent $61,799.30 on Flávio Bolsonaro outcome Yes. Profit so far: $24,822.58. That position is printing money right now.
- Law-Operator · 24 hours ago
Desgaste
- FarbusBoIsonaro22 · 24 hours ago
Rui Costa Pimenta reconhece que Bolsonaro é um preso político, que os coitados do 8 de janeiro estão presos injustamente e que os bolsonaristas são perseguidos pelo sistema. MBL/Missão faz tudo ao contrário, e o calvo psicopata líder desses lixos ainda manda um "Alexandre de Moraes ❤️" no tuíter.
- halostryx · 24 hours ago
nao compare a merda do MBL com os based do PCO
- Mortified-Headline · yesterday
🗳️ SIMBÓLICO: Datafolha das vésperas em 2022, no Estado de São Paulo. 📊 Pesquisa (01/10/22) 🔴 Lula (PT): 48,0% 🔵 Jair Bolsonaro (PL): 34,0% 🟣 Simone Tebet (MDB): 6,0% 📊 Resultado do TSE 🔵 Jair Bolsonaro (PL): 47,7% 🔴 Lula (PT): 40,8%
As of Sep 29, 09:21 PM UTC