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PolymarketOpen

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

No97%
Yes3%

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24h volume$172
7d volume$373.9
30d volume$6.8K
Liquidity$48.8K
Spread0%
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Venue activity

Holders476
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments31

Best bid 97% · best ask 98%

Top holders

  • Chungvicular82496570332984679554195177789706736795170417640692739176832196524671988217379
  • rulki74453252193148717007972627387565739933229360141591660605434616142548704822067
  • fine202682496570332984679554195177789706736795170417640692739176832196524671988217379
  • 0x333e8f4fb0353ef31cf1a7d00789e1319381369b74453252193148717007972627387565739933229360141591660605434616142548704822067
  • opdo82496570332984679554195177789706736795170417640692739176832196524671988217379

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

  • SELL97%$56 days ago
  • BUY98%$56 days ago
  • BUY97%$115.86 days ago
  • BUY97%$25.57 days ago
  • SELL97%$57 days ago
  • BUY97%$57 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

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31 comments

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.
  • Bitcoinchadwins · 28 days ago

    Why are all the Trump out as president monthly props whether through resignation or impeachment not renewing? Wake up admin we wanna gamble. Looks so suspicious they aren't renewing. Lol

  • polmar001 · 2 months ago

    what if he says he will resign satirically or jokingly?

  • shadowwizardmoneygang · 5 months ago

    roflmao nice glgl

  • Worse-Downturn · 5 months ago

    Then what if he actually resigns, but doesn't announce it? If he just signs his resignation paper and goes off to the golf course, and leaves it to others to tell the world?

  • cmanwahoo · 5 months ago

    "For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market."

  • lil-b · 6 months ago

    I have made a grave mistake

  • lil-b · 6 months ago

    What is trump re-signing? Why would something need his signature twice? I'm going to buy NO because typically presidents only sign a document one time, and signing it another time does not give it any more power. In fact, I challenge you to find me ANY document signed by Trump twice. You guys that think another signature matters legally are going to make me so rich!!!!

  • Sourbreadfan · 6 months ago

    Obviously not.

  • polmar001 · 6 months ago

    if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency what if he says he will resign but he's not resigning?

  • MessiFan10 · 6 months ago

    What if trump says somehting like «i will resign IF (xyc) happens». ?

  • matz · 9 months ago

    trump can resign withouth specifically taking those words into his mouth, making this will trump resign market resolve to no when trump literally resigns

  • ProulxS · 9 months ago

    Correct. As per rules that would be an immediate No. There are other markets such as Out of presidency which include death and being "kicked out"

  • ProulxS · 9 months ago

    ? Out by any means before end of March versus resign during the year. That's two very different markets. This market here only goes to yes if he resign. Any other means of leaving office is a no as per the rules

  • OnePiece7 · 9 months ago

    LOL

  • reruru · 9 months ago

    jeeez 7%, whilst the market Trump out as President by March 31? is down to 5%

  • Edible-Glider · 9 months ago

    seems clear enough to me, whats the actual problem here?

  • Edible-Glider · 10 months ago

    He is more likely to be hit by an asteroid than to willingly resign

  • Baggy-Coinsurance · 10 months ago

    So if he dies or is kicked out it's not a win? Is that correct?

  • DFK · 11 months ago

    Welcome to PM

  • Pknox1932 · 11 months ago

    For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

As of Sep 29, 09:19 PM UTC