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Best AI at the end of 2026? — ChatGPT

No91 %

Yes9 %

Precio comprobado el 4 oct, 04:03 UTC

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Spread6 %

Se resuelve1 ene 2027dentro de 3 meses

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Reglas de resolución

If OpenAI has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Outcome verified from LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Controls). If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. This event is mutually exclusive. Read the full [terms & conditions](<https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fea66c0a95d3c45e5810d4a006785e648?alt=media&token=2d7cf5c5-b5d4-469a-a23d-fc3cb10f6ecc&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba>)

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Comparables, no idénticas. The venues publish different settlement times (Kalshi: Dec. 31, 2026 at 15:00 UTC; Gemini: Jan. 1, 2027 at 04:59 UTC), but both concern the Dec. 31 result. Gemini explicitly says the source is the LM Arena Leaderboard and states the market is mutually exclusive; Kalshi provides the same source-related instruction and tie-breakers but does not state that phrase.

Geminieste mercado
Best AI at the end of 2026? — ChatGPT
If OpenAI has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Outcome verified from LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Controls). If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. This event is mutually exclusive. Read the full [terms & conditions](<https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fea66c0a95d3c45e5810d4a006785e648?alt=media&token=2d7cf5c5-b5d4-469a-a23d-fc3cb10f6ecc&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba>)
leído 3 oct, 21:01 UTC
KalshiAbrir →
Best AI at the end of 2026?: Best AI on Dec 31, 2026? ChatGPT
If OpenAI has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.
leído 3 oct, 13:22 UTC

Otras variantes de este evento

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Mercado	Plataforma	Precio	Volumen 24 h	Liquidez	Fin previsto	Estado
Best AI at the end of 2026? — Gemini	Gemini	62 % No	—	—	—	Abierto
Best AI at the end of 2026? — Claude	Gemini	52 % Yes	—	—	—	Abierto
Best AI at the end of 2026? — Qwen	Gemini	98 % No	—	—	—	Abierto
Best AI at the end of 2026? — Ernie	Gemini	99 % No	—	—	—	Abierto
Best AI at the end of 2026? — Grok	Gemini	97 % No	—	—	—	Abierto
Best AI at the end of 2026? — LLaMA	Gemini	99 % No	—	—	—	Abierto

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A las 4 oct, 04:05 UTC