Probabilidades en tiempo real de los mercados de predicción de todo el mundo. Una pregunta. Todos los mercados. Claridad total.
~40Miedoprovisional
71,9 % de cobertura · actualizado hace 4 minutos · experimental
Experimental proxy for market activity and uncertainty, not emotions or optimism about outcomes. Higher scores mean greater activity and lower uncertainty relative to recent history.
Heuristic, not validated sentiment or investment advice. Repricing is not realised volatility. Named-leg uncertainty is not full multi-outcome entropy. Deadlines, category/event mix, reporting changes, cluster errors and manipulated volume can affect the result. Event identity is only as complete as venue mappings. No social engagement or AI inference is used.
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MetodologíaThe lead and the brief are ordered by importance: money at risk over the last day, half again where two venues price the question, up to half again for a move of ten points, and a quarter again where it settles within a month; the top ten hold at most three of one category. Movers is the largest absolute change over the window, above a volume floor, one row per event; disagreeing is the widest spread between venues that price the question, five points or more, and is shown only when two or more qualify; closing is the soonest to settle; most read is what readers opened most over the last seven days, counted per question and never per person. Questions settling within 48 hours or priced beyond 99/1 are not listed. Each question appears once on the shelves below the brief, on the most significant shelf it reaches, and nothing below the brief is placed by hand.