Will Kenya and the US reach a critical minerals deal in 2026? Before 2027

If Kenya has agreed to, signed, or accepted a critical minerals agreement with the United States before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An agreement also made with other countries (i.e. multilaterally) is still encompassed if Kenya participates. A qualifying agreement is a written agreement, memorandum of understanding, framework, or similar instrument between the government of Kenya and the government of the United States, including any U.S. federal department or agency, that is expressly described in its text or in either government's official announcement as concerning critical minerals or rare earth elements, including their exploration, mining, processing, refining, supply, purchase, or financing. A preliminary agreement, agreement in principle, or memorandum of understanding qualifies; ratification, entry into force, and implementation are not required. Both governments publicly and officially agreeing to the terms of such an instrument is sufficient even if formal signing has not yet taken place. An agreement that also covers other subjects qualifies if it includes such critical minerals terms. A contract, license, or project award between either government and a private company, without both governments as parties, does NOT qualify. Statements that negotiations are advanced or ongoing do NOT qualify. Joining, endorsing, or signing a declaration, communique, statement of principles, or membership in a multi-country forum or partnership, such as the Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement or the Minerals Security Partnership, does NOT qualify unless the instrument sets out critical minerals commitments specifically between Kenya and the United States. A grant, loan, financing commitment, technical-assistance, geological-survey, or data-sharing agreement for a single study or project does NOT qualify unless either government officially describes it as a critical minerals agreement, framework, or partnership between Kenya and the United States.