Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?

2.45B$ reconstruction plan for gaza is in the works, including disarmament (after the election obviously) : see Axios headline

You're probably right. But still, the "Hamas's commitment to disarm" will no longer be "contingent" on Israël's approval to retreat, if they start giving away their weapons nonetheless.

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Yes, that is exactly right. Hamas must unconditionally surrender or surrender under terms acceptable to the other relevant parties. @LJa7io23MCv954j's hypothetical involving the Russian war is spot on.

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The YES holders have no ground to stand on. The market spells it out in plain English that an agreement to disarm cannot be "contingent on future conditions". So anything short of an unconditional surrender by Hamas would not qualify.

Exactly, the word israel isn’t even mentioned in the rules

Thats not what they said, they simply said that they want Israel to be held to the promises they made under the deal. In your world this market would only become yes if hamas unilaterally unconditionally disarms

There is no deal tho ? And how are they supposed to disarm? Explain to me what reasonable mechanism was proposed and rejected by Hamas. They formulated the exact mechanism, but Netanyahu rejected the entire process which has nothing to do with what this market

There is no deal, though. Polymarket explained it clearly. Why aren't they disarming right now? Because their agreement is contingent on Israel's agreement. Without it, it doesn't come into effect. If Putin said "I'll stop the war once Ukraine gives me Kyiv" and Ukraine said "no way," then Putin has not agreed to stop the war. What's unclear about that?

Hamas did not say anything. It simply agreed to the 20-point plan that Israel had already accepted. Point 16 stated that the IDF would withdraw according to "standards, milestones, and timeframes linked to demilitarization. They have now formulated a more detailed implementation plan based on that framework. Hamas accepted it Israel did not

We could understand it if they had no knowledge of the considerations surrounding this specific geopolitical market. But at the very least, they need to abide by their own rules. The rules state that plans contingent on future conditions do not count unless they constitute a formal policy. This has now become their formal policy, and they have never retracted it. Even after Israel rejected the plan, they officially reiterated their commitment to the disarmament plan. The plan requires for exemple the entry of the ISF. What happens if Israel itself blocks this process? And how is Hamas supposed to disarm without a formally agreed upon mechanism? The commitments and the outline of the agreement were already established in the 20-point plan. What changed is that Hamas accepted the disarmament provision and that is precisely what this market is about. If Israel rejected the very deal it had already signed, that is not what this market is asking about

You guys really can't make the difference between "we agree to disarm" and "we agree to disarm after Israel withdraw Gaza"?

yeah, we got rugged by 2 Polymarket team members in a NYC office, who don't even know where Gaza is located on a map

The board of Polymarket needs to review itself this is a ridiculous market. A month ago, the real odds that Hamas would ever agree to disarm were less than 5% for everyone, even for decision makers in Israel, because disarmament is their primary political symbol. Then in a major breakthrough, they did agree, which reflects the true spirit of this market. Their disarmament agreement was included in a deal that Israel is trying hard to block. So, if Israel is trying to block the disarmament process itself, why should this market be named Will Hamas agree to Disarm? It should be rather titled: Will Hamas Disarmement process begin ? The market will definitely resolve to Yes but I'm not sure when. Either way polymarket should stop adding rediculous updates

The point when polymarket added israel to the mix, even though they are never mentioned in the rules it completely ruined this market. The only way this market is yes now is if hamas says “we will disarm regardless if israel bombs the entire country”

Correct. Israel has already retreated to the Yellow Line in preparation for letting the NCGA and ISF into Gaza. Israel has already signaled they agree to the plan. Once Hamas hands over 1 weapon this will resolve YES

"wouldn't be enough" ? If they actually start surrendering weapons in 30d, even without formal Israeli approval, it sounds moot since we're talking about actual disarmament, we'd be way past the announcements or commitments defined in the rules so far, no?

'We will disarm when the wild buffalos return to Gaza'. -Hamas.