Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

No93 %
Yes8 %

Precio comprobado el

Operar
Define tu país para ver dónde puedes operar.Definir tu país →
Abre la plataforma en una pestaña nueva, a través de Predxy.
Volumen 24 h462,9 US$
Volumen 7 d739,4 US$
Volumen 30 d8,5 mil US$
Liquidez17,4 mil US$
Spread1 %
Se resuelve1 ene 2027dentro de 3 meses

Historial de probabilidades

Arrastra para mover · pellizca o usa ⌘/Ctrl+desplazamiento para ampliar

Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.

Historial de probabilidades0%25%50%75%100%2 sept9 sept17 sept24 sept2 octLos periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.

Basado en los precios de los posibles resultados de este mercado, expresados como probabilidades.

Reglas de resolución

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns a model that ranks first, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names will be used as a final tiebreaker. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model occupies the top position in this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

La misma pregunta en otras plataformas

Ver la pregunta combinada →
Comparables, no idénticas. The published resolution criteria are materially identical; PredictFun does not publish a resolution timestamp, while Polymarket lists January 1, 2027, 04:59 UTC. Both specify the same leaderboard source and fallback treatment.
  • Polymarketeste mercado

    Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns a model that ranks first, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names will be used as a final tiebreaker. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model occupies the top position in this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

    183 titulares · 2 comentarios · leído 28 sept, 16:41 UTC

  • PredictFunAbrir →

    Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns a model that ranks first, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names will be used as a final tiebreaker. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model occupies the top position in this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

    leído 1 oct, 13:20 UTC

Otras variantes de este evento

MercadoPlataformaPrecioEstado
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?Polymarket87 % NoAbierto

Actividad en la plataforma

Titulares183
Valor en posiciones—
Operaciones (24 h)—
Operaciones—
Interés abierto—
Comentarios2

Mayores titulares

  • th296397436209982671453637902269275725071267861171129419695794443407952680636718
  • Light-Lab75208882562061736657939023955710826509085710699626885913084554436160797786348
  • Wojtek75208882562061736657939023955710826509085710699626885913084554436160797786348
  • aenews275208882562061736657939023955710826509085710699626885913084554436160797786348
  • Jamieamills75208882562061736657939023955710826509085710699626885913084554436160797786348

Una instantánea de posiciones, no un historial de resultados.

Operaciones recientes

  • SELL8 %14,7 US$hace 5 días
  • BUY92 %2 US$hace 6 días
  • BUY92 %53 US$hace 7 días
  • SELL8 %1,6 US$hace 8 días
  • SELL9 %3,6 US$hace 8 días
  • SELL90 %163,7 US$hace 8 días

Debate en Predxy

Inicia sesión para participar en el debate.

Nadie ha dicho nada aquí todavía.

2 comentarios

Los comentarios pertenecen al evento de la plataforma, no a este resultado. Todas las variantes del mismo evento comparten este hilo.
  • Loyal-Astrakhan · hace 29 días

    China at least number 3

  • GenaTheBondKilIer · hace 2 meses

    China number 1

A las 2 oct, 05:19 UTC