Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026?
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Reglas de resolución
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month. The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row. This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Otras variantes de este evento
Una variante leída sola engaña; las demás están al lado.| Mercado | Plataforma | Precio | Estado |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.7m barrels per day in 2026? | Polymarket | 97 % No | Abierto |
| Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 2m barrels per day in 2026? | Polymarket | 96 % No | Abierto |
| Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.4m barrels per day in 2026? | Polymarket | 86 % No | Abierto |
| Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.2m barrels per day in 2026? | Polymarket | 73 % Yes | Abierto |
| Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.5m barrels per day in 2026? | Polymarket | 91 % No | Abierto |
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8 comentarios
Del hilo propio de Polymarket- siick · hace 5 meses
Well this aged like milk
- ilovepepefrog · hace 7 meses
is it happening ?
- BillyBoy94 · hace 8 meses
january report out, 800k. yes is way overvalued
- BillyBoy94 · hace 8 meses
Venezuela is already operating near its practical ceiling given current infrastructure and service capacity. They don’t have spare upstream capability to materially lift production in 2026 — that requires multi-year field rehab and upgrader investment. Storage is also constrained, so they can’t just overproduce and warehouse barrels to smooth into OPEC reporting. Exports are limited by blending/diluent availability, power reliability, and logistics bottlenecks. OPEC reports monthly average production — not a one-off cargo spike — so you need sustained incremental output. There is no credible path to a structural production jump before 2027/28, which makes “Yes” severely mispriced.
- gabrielse · hace 8 meses
Al llegar a 1.2m, se entiende que las marcas de 1.0 y 1.1 ya han sido rebasadas
- esteban2323 · hace 9 meses
si llega a 1.2m, se marcara 1.0 y 1.1 como NO?
- vibetradingprodigy · hace 9 meses
their oil is too heavy, needs too much infrastructure, takes a long time
- Sailsbary · hace 9 meses
OPEC+ just reaffirmed their output levels, and with the U.S. and Guyana pumping at record highs, does the market even want an extra million Venezuelan barrels? If production actually hits 1.2 million bpd this year, we’re looking at $50 oil for a long time
A las 2 oct, 19:28 UTC