US strike on Cuba by December 31?
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Historial de probabilidades
Probabilidades implícitas del mercado · Todo el historial registradoArrastra para mover · pellizca o usa ⌘/Ctrl+desplazamiento para ampliar
Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.
Basado en los precios de los posibles resultados de este mercado, expresados como probabilidades.
Reglas de resolución
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Actividad en la plataforma
Leído de la plataforma anteayerMejor compra 84 % · mejor venta 86 %
Mayores titulares
- Threadbare-Signal91347242536105459969213788769929618447748782724898414007495579710952664644740
- Jan77755782999195478978645683058282751482473275270795090145277907596121415418369349
- de5nuts91347242536105459969213788769929618447748782724898414007495579710952664644740
- Anjun55782999195478978645683058282751482473275270795090145277907596121415418369349
- StudentMoney55782999195478978645683058282751482473275270795090145277907596121415418369349
Una instantánea de posiciones, no un historial de resultados.
Operaciones recientes
- BUY15 %100 US$anteayer
- BUY16 %16 US$anteayer
- SELL85 %19,5 US$anteayer
- SELL14 %43,8 US$anteayer
- SELL85 %0,1 US$anteayer
- BUY86 %1 US$anteayer
Debate en Predxy
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Nadie ha dicho nada aquí todavía.
90 comentarios
Del hilo propio de Polymarket- Second-Hand-Bend · hace 29 días
Curious what you're watching here—would a confirmed U.S. strike on Cuban soil be the key trigger for you, or are there specific Cuba/Venezuela news catalysts that would change your view?
- Second-Hand-Bend · hace 29 días
Jokes aside, I’d focus on official U.S. statements, naval/air deployments, and any Cuba/Venezuela escalation before moving this much on headlines.
- Second-Hand-Bend · hace 29 días
What evidence or catalyst would change your view before Dec 31?
- phd-in-tradeology · el mes pasado
I would start by looking for your mom
- Second-Hand-Bend · el mes pasado
@phd-in-tradeology with Yes around 16¢ on this US strike-on-Cuba-by-Dec-31 market, what indicators would you watch for a real timeline shift—official warnings, naval movements, or Cuba/Venezuela escalation?
- beksaid072 · el mes pasado
is it real??
- Whole-Producer · hace 2 meses
Thing is Cuba wasnt even supposed to be communist it was forced by horrible embargo caused by the United States which led to a strong relationship with the soviet Union watch any fidel castro early interview and he said he was not communist.
- crystalball12 · hace 2 meses
if it were up to me I'd lift the blockade against Cuba but I seriously doubt my 50 dollar bet has any impact on that policy enacted by the US
- Whole-Producer · hace 2 meses
It should be 0% never pray on the downfall of a population thats suffering you will lose your bags and you should feel like a piece of shit for thinking that you are better then other humans. Haha fucking loserrrr
- Relaccsed · hace 2 meses
hell nawh.
- crystalball12 · hace 2 meses
24% is still too high lmao, it should be >10%
- Stable-Antecedent · hace 2 meses
Get in there Trump! Get those commie bastards, the cubans are dreaming for a change. Give them democracy you old fart
- Stable-Antecedent · hace 2 meses
you will sock him? That sounds pretty gay. Also its not Trumps fault there has been no free elections in Cuba since Castro-mafia took power.
- Relaccsed · hace 2 meses
Retard. Volume isn’t investment.
- Stunning-Cloves · hace 2 meses
dudes 2 million investiment only made him 14 k youre an idiot honestly. Gambling addict lowlife fuck.
- Stunning-Cloves · hace 2 meses
The united States is blocking essential electricity to hospitals and old people homes. A lot of people are dying. Bro if i ever find out who you are i will fucking sock you
- Stunning-Cloves · hace 2 meses
The united States is blocking essential electricity to hospitals and old people homes. A lot of people are dying. I cant wait to see marines getting ambushed and slaughtered by the guerillas down there.
- Relaccsed · hace 3 meses
Trump its not so funny anymore please attack
- Relaccsed · hace 3 meses
dear trumptito, please strike cuba to save my bags. Thank you.
- Relaccsed · hace 3 meses
its comin'
A las 29 sept, 23:22 UTC